Bernstein has singled out a group of Indian companies it views as attractive investment opportunities, led by large state-controlled power utilities and a handful of financial-services firms. The research house cites strengthening fundamentals in the power sector - driven by faster electricity demand growth and extensive capital expenditure plans - alongside high-growth trajectories in payments and gold-lending niches.
The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for Indias power demand growth to a 6.4% compound annual rate between 2025 and 2030, up from a prior estimate of 5.5%. Bernstein highlights that this stronger demand path, together with policy and investment support for renewables, underpins a substantial uplift in generation and network spending. The firm anticipates roughly $40 billion a year of generation investment in India.
Utilities: NTPC and Power Grid
Within the power sector, Bernstein prefers NTPC as its top pick. The firm reasons that NTPC has greater growth potential because it remains effectively the only large-scale developer adding thermal capacity in India, capacity that regulators and system operators view as necessary to balance intermittent renewable generation. NTPC is also noted as the only listed developer engaged in constructing nuclear power plants in India. Combined with its access to relatively low-cost capital, Bernstein sees NTPC well positioned to expand into renewable energy and become one of the countrys largest renewable players.
Despite these attributes, Bernstein observes that NTPCs stock is trading lower or broadly in line with global peers even though it posts higher returns on equity and greater growth metrics than many international utility counterparts.
Power Grid retains an Outperform rating from Bernstein. The research house notes that Power Grid has historically delivered capital expenditure above its guidance and has recently raised its fiscal year 2026 capex forecast. As states adopt new government guidelines, right-of-way challenges that had constrained project delivery are easing, prompting the company to lift capitalization guidance for fiscal years 2026 through 2028. Bernstein underscores that both NTPC and Power Grid benefit from cheaper valuations compared with Indian and global utility peers, along with favorable cost of debt and ready access to capital.
Financials: Muthoot Finance and Paytm
In financial services, Bernstein highlights two different franchises. Muthoot Finance, a pure-play gold-loan company, carries an Outperform rating with a target price of INR 4,500. The firm notes that gold loans constitute more than 80% of Muthoots lending book. For the nine months of fiscal year 2026, Muthoot reported gold asset growth of approximately 36%, surpassing its upward-revised guidance. Bernstein projects that Muthoot will record asset growth north of 40% in fiscal year 2026, supported by elevated gold prices. Return on equity has remained above 30%, and the firm points to an approximately 95% year-over-year increase in earnings per share in the third quarter of 2026.
Paytm is Bernsteins preferred pick in the payments segment, also carrying an Outperform rating and a target price of INR 1,500. The research house models non-linear earnings-per-share progression from about INR 9 in fiscal year 2026 to roughly INR 82 by fiscal year 2030, driven by revenue growth in excess of a 20% compound annual rate. Bernstein highlights that Paytms merchant business remains strong, accounting for about 70% of total revenue, and forecasts roughly 30% year-over-year growth in loan distribution volumes during fiscal years 2026 to 2030.
Bottom line
Bernsteins selections emphasize Indian power-sector incumbents with large-scale capital programmes and balance-sheet access alongside targeted financial-services franchises that are benefiting from favorable market dynamics. The firms view rests on upgraded demand projections for electricity, a substantial pipeline of generation investment, and accelerating revenue and asset growth in selected lending and payments businesses.