JOHANNESBURG, May 4 - South Africa's manufacturing sentiment strengthened in April as output and new sales orders recovered following a subdued first quarter, according to the Absa-sponsored purchasing managers' index (PMI) published on Monday.
The seasonally adjusted PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 49.0 in March, moving back above the 50 mark that denotes expansion in business activity. The April reading marked the first month of expansion since September 2025.
Absa noted that some of the improvement could reflect front-loading of demand ahead of expected price increases, and said this pattern raises questions about how durable the recovery will be. "Some of this improvement likely reflects front-loading of demand ahead of expected price increases, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery," the bank said in a statement.
Detailed components of the PMI showed a turnaround in activity. Business activity climbed to 52.8 in April from 46.1 in March, returning to expansionary territory after the earlier contraction. New sales orders jumped to 52.9 from 44.5, signalling renewed intake for manufacturers following the weak first quarter.
Despite the gains on activity and orders, cost pressures intensified. The report identified higher input costs driven in part by a weaker rand currency and by rising international oil prices. These headwinds pushed input cost measures upward during April.
Sentiment about near-term prospects improved modestly, but remained below the threshold that indicates positive expectations. Expected business conditions edged up but did not breach the 50 mark, pointing to continued caution among respondents about the outlook.
Summary
- The Absa-sponsored PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 49.0 in March, returning to expansion for the first time since September 2025.
- Business activity increased to 52.8 from 46.1, and new sales orders climbed to 52.9 from 44.5.
- Input costs were pushed higher by a softer rand and elevated international oil prices; expected business conditions improved but remained below 50.
Key points
- Manufacturing output and new orders have rebounded in April, signaling a re-acceleration of activity after a weak first quarter - sector impacted: manufacturing.
- Cost pressures are rising due to a weaker rand and higher international oil prices, which affect input costs for producers - sectors impacted: manufacturing and energy-intensive industries.
- Near-term confidence has improved slightly but remains subdued, which could influence production planning and investment decisions in the coming months - sectors impacted: industrials and supply chains.
Risks and uncertainties
- Front-loading of demand ahead of expected price increases may have temporarily inflated April readings, leaving the sustainability of the recovery uncertain - this affects demand forecasting in manufacturing.
- Rising input costs tied to a weaker rand and higher international oil prices could compress margins for producers if firms cannot pass costs on to customers - this is a risk for manufacturing and energy-intensive sectors.
- Despite improved readings, expected business conditions remained below 50, indicating continued subdued confidence which could limit investment and hiring plans in the near term - relevant to industrials and employment-sensitive sectors.
Note: All figures and statements are as reported in the Absa-sponsored PMI release for April.