Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,093 total articles
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has dropped plans to bring forward the end of the North Sea windfall tax after a recent surge in oil and gas prices tied to conflict in Iran. The Energy Profits Levy remains scheduled to expire in March 2030 as ministers continue consultations with industry groups and major producers.
BCA Research has formally upgraded Canadian and Australian equity positions to overweight and moved its currency allocations to favor the Canadian and Australian dollars, citing the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting change in global trade terms. The firm also increased its allocation to tail-risk hedges to a "max overweigh…
Investors in Anthropic have engaged with company executives, major partners and political contacts in an effort to defuse a months-long dispute with the Pentagon over how the company's artificial intelligence can be used in military settings. Conversations have included CEO Dario Amodei, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and venture firms Lightspeed and Iconiq…
The U.S.-Israeli military action on Iran has immediately disrupted commercial shipping in the Gulf, lifting crude and gas prices and threatening to push inflation higher while tempering already modest growth prospects across Europe. The Strait of Hormuz is the focal point for a substantial share of global oil and LNG flows to Europe. Early market m…
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran told Bloomberg TV that recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and the resulting upward pressure on oil prices, do not change his view that the U.S. central bank should proceed with a series of rate cuts this year. Miran expects inflation to moderate and believes ongoing strain in the labor market warrant…
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that the rapid expansion of hedge funds and private credit in sovereign debt markets is creating vulnerabilities that may be growing faster than regulators can understand or control. He noted heightened economic uncertainty, stretched valuations, limited fiscal flexibility and potential spillovers from co…
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon described financial market reactions to the Iran war as unexpectedly muted on the conflict's fifth day. Investors have been watching oil prices closely after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatened vessels transiting the waterway. Solomon said it will take weeks for markets to assess sho…
OpenAI is developing GPT-5.4, a follow-up model reported to include a context window exceeding 1 million tokens, stronger retention across extended tasks and a new extreme reasoning mode that allocates more compute and time to difficult queries. The information comes from a person familiar with the development.
Poland's central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% this week, a move that came even after a spike in oil and gas prices earlier in the period. With inflation at 2.2% in January and wage growth softening, policymakers proceeded with the reduction while indicating that the easing cycle may be nearing its end.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran reiterated that he supports continuing the process of cutting interest rates, saying it remains premature to judge how recent attacks in the Middle East will affect the US economy. He cited unchanged forecasts for inflation and the labor market so far, while noting the labor market continues to need support. M…
European Union officials say they have been reassured the United States will maintain a 10% universal tariff on EU exports, even though U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a 15% rate could be implemented this week. The EU's account is based on information from people familiar with the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S…
Analysts at BCA Research, including Jesse Anak Kuri, say that a surge in oil prices tied to escalating conflict in the Middle East could produce higher gasoline prices at the pump just as U.S. voters head to the polls, increasing the likelihood that Democrats regain control of the House. The note highlights risks to tanker traffic through the Strai…
Defense officials announced that U.S. and Israeli forces have secured uncontested control of Iranian airspace four days after the launch of Operation Epic Fury. Senior Pentagon leaders reported sharp declines in Iranian ballistic missile and drone launches, significant naval losses for Iran and continued strikes on military targets across the count…
ADP’s monthly employment survey found private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, while January’s figure was revised down to a gain of 11,000. The report, produced with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, precedes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ broader employment release and comes as markets weigh tariff rulings, energy-driven inflation risks …
Venezuela's central bank reported a 7.07% year-on-year increase in gross domestic product for the fourth quarter, marking the country's 19th straight quarter of expansion. The bank attributed the quarterly rise largely to oil-sector gains and noted non-oil growth led by construction and mining. Independent analysts and local firms, however, estimat…
NATO air and missile defense elements deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean engaged and destroyed a ballistic missile fired from Iran after it crossed Iraqi and Syrian airspace and was detected on a track toward Turkish airspace. Debris from the interceptor fell in the Dortyol district of Hatay province; authorities reported no casualties. Turkey's…
British equity indexes moved into positive territory on Wednesday after earlier losses tied to the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. Markets reacted to reports that Iranian operatives had approached the CIA about possible terms to end the conflict, a development that traders interpreted as a potential de-escalation signal. The blue-chip F…
European Central Bank officials, mindful of their delayed response to the 2022 inflation surge, are preparing to treat any Iran war-related rise in energy prices with heightened skepticism about transience. The euro zone’s import dependence, recent oil and LNG market moves and persistent domestic inflation mean the ECB may be quicker to react to su…
A senior OECD official said inflation is the chief risk to global fixed-income markets after energy prices jumped following the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran. The organisation cautioned that higher yields, shorter debt maturities and large borrowing needs this year create a sizable stress test for governments, corporates and emerging markets. S…
Speaking at a conference in Luxembourg, the chair of euro zone finance ministers said Europe's long-standing growth model that depended on an expanding workforce is running out of room. With the bloc facing significant demographic headwinds and a projected annual workforce contraction by 2040, policymakers must turn to higher productivity driven by…
NATO air and missile defence systems destroyed a ballistic missile fired from Iran that was on a trajectory into Turkish airspace. The Turkish Defence Ministry said the projectile traversed Syrian and Iraqi territory prior to being intercepted over the eastern Mediterranean Sea. No casualties or injuries were reported, and Turkey has warned against…
A recent blog post by two European Central Bank staff economists reports that firms in the euro zone which make substantial use of artificial intelligence are, on average, more likely to increase staffing in the near term. The finding is drawn from the ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises and stands in contrast to other studies that…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said it is premature to judge how the Iran war will affect the U.S. economy and advocated keeping interest rates at their current levels for an extended period. Hammack highlighted the need to balance inflation reduction with potential softness in the labor market in remarks given in a New Yo…
Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, told the New York Times it is too soon to assess the economic fallout from the Iran war and supported keeping interest rates unchanged "for quite some time." She said policymakers should prioritize returning inflation to target while monitoring labor-market softness that could change…
The U.S. dollar has rallied since the outbreak of hostilities involving the U.S., Israel and Iran, driven in part by the covering of short positions and a sharp rise in oil prices. However, currency strategists polled in a monthly FX survey generally expect the dollar to resume weakening later in the year, with most still pricing in roughly two Fed…
