Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,094 total articles
UBS warns that a sharp jump in energy costs following the Iran war has created simultaneous upward pressure on inflation and a drag on growth, complicating the European Central Bank's policy path. Markets have repriced expectations toward cumulative rate increases by December 2026, and UBS expects the ECB to present multiple scenarios at its March …
Markets have sharply repriced expectations for central bank policy after the Iran war elevated oil prices and the risk of sustained supply disruption. Investors now see the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and Sweden's Riksbank moving to raise rates this year, with the Bank of England pushed back into the tightening conversation for 2…
Barclays analyst Jonathan Miller says recent U.S. data has reduced uncertainty around growth and the labour market, but rising oil prices represent the principal upside risk to inflation. The bank retains forecasts for two 25 basis-point rate cuts in June and December, while raising its December 2026 CPI projection following recent energy market mo…
A federal judge has determined that Kari Lake was not lawfully serving as acting CEO of the U.S. Agency for Global Media during much of 2025, voiding a set of decisions she made to reduce staff and curtail Voice of America operations. The ruling, delivered March 7, favors VOA journalists and a federal employees union and could upend cuts that remai…
Rising hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have pushed Brent crude past $100 per barrel and raised concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. Investors will parse key U.S. inflation measures this week while the Federal Reserve enters a pre-decision blackout period. Corporate earnings from Oracle and Adobe add further focus, with AI-related sp…
Minutes from a recent roundtable show the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions warned major banks that the common use of blanket appraisals for condominium mortgages - which lock in values at purchase agreement rather than at closing - can lead to uninsured loans exceeding the 80% loan-to-value threshold under the Bank Act in a fa…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she expects inflation to move toward the Fed's 2% goal but warned that if price pressures do not ease later this year the central bank may need to adopt a more restrictive stance. Hammack cited surging oil prices tied to President Donald Trump’s war on Iran and a recent loss of 92,000 jo…
Oil has climbed roughly 60% in just over a week amid tensions related to the war in Iran, prompting traders to price about 40 basis points of ECB tightening for the year. Senior European Central Bank officials have largely cautioned against rapid policy action, stressing the importance of the medium-term inflation outlook and close, data-driven mon…
Norway's Labour Party-led government has reduced its forecast for non-oil gross domestic product in 2026 to 1.8% from an October estimate of 2.1%, while slightly raising the 2027 outlook to 1.9% from 1.8%. Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg cited the war in the Middle East as a source of heightened international economic uncertainty, noting that out…
Market measures of a U.S. recession risk have risen sharply since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, with prediction market Polymarket showing a 37% probability this morning. Equity futures slipped as strategists reassess the balance of scenarios for the U.S. economy, with Ed Yardeni markedly raising the chance of a 'Meltdown' that includes …
U.S. equity futures opened lower as the conflict in Iran enters a second week, driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel and stoking renewed worries about inflation and global growth. Oil supply disruptions centered on the Strait of Hormuz have forced route diversions, raised insurance and storage pressures, and prompted calls from policymakers to pr…
Euro-zone government bond yields climbed sharply after the widening conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to multi-year highs, raising concerns that higher energy costs could complicate central bank rate plans and damp safe-haven demand for sovereign debt. Germany's 10-year yield reached its highest level in a year, while short-dated yields…
Multiple investor delegations from the United States and elsewhere are planning visits to Venezuela in the coming weeks to meet senior government officials, company executives and local business leaders. Three separate advisory firms are organizing trips that target macroeconomic and political stability checks, debt restructuring talks and opportun…
Barclays warns that a recent surge in oil and gas prices tied to the Middle East conflict could shave growth and lift inflation across the euro zone, raising the prospect of stagflation if the price moves persist. The bank projects modest quarterly GDP gains conditional on a short-lived energy shock, while noting the ECB is unlikely to move policy …
Bonds fell broadly on Monday after oil climbed above $115 a barrel amid an intensifying U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. A more than 20% jump in crude to its highest level since July 2022, supply cuts by some regional producers and concern about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz prompted investors to reassess inflation risks and the path for monetar…
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cautioned that the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran raises substantial upside risks to global inflation. The warning came as Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude jumped to intraday peaks above $119 a barrel amid strikes, retaliatory attacks and disruptions around the Stra…
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has sharpened policy dilemmas for central banks worldwide. A substantial supply shock from higher oil costs is intensifying inflationary pressure while prompting a safe-haven shift into the U.S. dollar. Emerging Asian central banks that had considered rate cuts face the twin risk of price spikes and cap…
A sudden escalation in Middle East tensions has produced a sharp global energy shock. Brent crude jumped past $100 at the open and reached $119.50, a surge that has lifted the benchmark some 60% since President Trump ordered the attack on Iran. The rout in energy supply is reverberating across equities, bond markets and commodity-linked sectors as …
A Reuters poll of 23 economists indicates China’s goods exports likely strengthened in the combined January-February period, with median forecasts pointing to a 7.1% year-on-year rise in U.S. dollar terms and a sizable trade surplus. The projected acceleration from December’s 6.6% gain, paired with imports that are also expected to increase, sugges…
Tokyo and Washington are exploring a proposal to establish a display-manufacturing facility in the United States in collaboration with Japan Display. The project is being considered as an element of Japan's planned $550 billion investment package and aims to shore up U.S. capabilities for display technologies used in military systems, amid intense …
A monthly recruitment survey covering around 400 UK agencies recorded the slowest decline in starting pay for permanent roles since October and an uptick in permanent staff placements to their highest level in almost three years, while temporary hiring and some other gauges remain below the expansion threshold.
Indonesia’s finance minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, has stood by an assertive set of fiscal measures that depart from the country’s recent tradition of conservative budgeting. Facing investor unease and a downgrade of the sovereign outlook to negative, he argues the policies are designed to boost credit and growth and says data will vindicate his a…
Japan recorded a 1.4% year-on-year rise in real wages in January, the first increase in 13 months, driven by a 3.0% gain in average nominal pay and the slowest consumer inflation reading used to calculate real wages since March 2022. The data bolsters arguments for further Bank of Japan rate hikes ahead of its March 18-19 policy review, though poli…
The U.S. dollar climbed to multi-month highs on Monday as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed oil above $100 a barrel, prompted broad asset sell-offs and drove investors into perceived safe havens. Major currencies including the euro, sterling and commodity-linked currencies weakened, while crude benchmarks topped $108 a barrel, spotlight…
A Bernstein report outlines how artificial intelligence and upgraded property systems could let hotels offer hyper-personalized stays by automating guest choices and coordinating services. Achieving this will require hotels to move from type-based room inventories to attribute-driven systems, and may shift distribution dynamics in favor of direct b…
