HSBC has revised upward its silver price forecasts, now projecting the metal to average $75 per troy ounce in 2026 and $68 per troy ounce in 2027. Those figures represent an increase from its prior estimates of $68.25 for 2026 and $57 for 2027.
Silver experienced an extreme price swing earlier this year, reaching a record nominal high of $121 per ounce in late January. That peak reflected a combination of record gold prices, tight supply conditions, and a wave of safe-haven buying tied to tariff fears and geopolitical tensions. The market then reversed sharply, with silver falling to about $64 per ounce in early February after a surge in the dollar driven by Middle East conflict and a pullback in gold. At the time of HSBC's update, silver had recovered to trade above $86 per ounce.
Despite the higher forecasts, HSBC retained a cautious medium-term stance. The bank warned that the shrinking size of market deficits, together with weakening demand from industrial users and the jewelry sector, limits the potential for sustained price rallies.
HSBC projects the global silver market deficit will narrow from 143 million ounces in 2025 to 73 million ounces in 2026, and then to 25 million ounces in 2027 as both mine production and recycling supply increase. Those smaller deficits, the bank said, are a central reason it does not expect prolonged upward pressure on prices.
"Moderating deficits, in our view, will not be sufficient to propel silver sharply higher for prolonged periods," said James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC, which expects prices to ease in the second half of 2026 and 2027.
HSBC noted that industrial demand - which accounts for more than half of total silver consumption - fell to 657 million ounces in 2025 from a record 679 million ounces the year prior. The bank attributed that decline to manufacturers accelerating efforts to substitute or reduce silver usage in response to high prices. HSBC expects industrial demand to continue declining to 642 million ounces in 2026 and to 618 million ounces in 2027.
Jewelry demand is also projected to weaken, with HSBC forecasting it will fall to 157 million ounces "this year" from 189 million ounces in 2025.
On the supply side, HSBC expects mine output to remain broadly flat at 848 million ounces in 2026 before increasing to 868 million ounces in 2027. Recycling supply is forecast to climb to 216 million ounces this year from 197 million ounces in 2025, contributing to the narrowing of deficits the bank anticipates.
Steel added that a softer dollar, as forecast by HSBC's FX research team, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty would provide some support to silver prices. At the same time, he cautioned that a wider gold:silver ratio could permit silver to weaken even if gold rallies: "the gold:silver ratio is likely to widen, allowing silver to ease even if gold rallies."
HSBC also published year-end price targets for silver, setting them at $70 per ounce for the end of 2026 and $65 per ounce for the end of 2027.
Summary of HSBC's key numerical forecasts:
- Average silver price: $75/oz in 2026; $68/oz in 2027 (previously $68.25 and $57).
- Market deficit: 143 million oz in 2025; 73 million oz in 2026; 25 million oz in 2027.
- Industrial demand: 679 million oz (record) in the year prior to 2025; 657 million oz in 2025; 642 million oz in 2026; 618 million oz in 2027.
- Jewelry demand: 189 million oz in 2025; forecast to fall to 157 million oz "this year".
- Mine output: 848 million oz in 2026 (broadly flat); 868 million oz in 2027.
- Recycling supply: 197 million oz in 2025; 216 million oz this year.
- Year-end price targets: $70/oz for 2026; $65/oz for 2027.