A recent poll conducted by Nexus for BTG Pactual finds President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round runoff for Brazil's presidential election scheduled for October. The survey places Lula at 47% against Bolsonaro's 43% in that head-to-head scenario.
The poll also offers comparative data from mid-July. A separate poll carried out on July 13 recorded Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 44% in a similar two-way projection.
In addition to the runoff figures, the survey presents a multi-candidate first-round projection. According to those results, Lula would lead with 42% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 33%. The next-ranked candidates in the first-round scenario are Ronaldo Caiado with 6%, Renan Santos with 5%, and Romeu Zema with 3%.
Brazil's electoral system advances the top two vote-getters to a second round if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid first-round votes - a procedural detail that frames the significance of both the first-round and simulated runoff numbers reported by Nexus.
The poll was based on interviews with 2,004 respondents conducted between July 24 and July 26. Nexus reports a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points for the survey.
The results provide a snapshot of voter preferences at the time of the fieldwork and show a modest movement in the simulated runoff compared with the mid-July reading. The data include both a direct two-candidate comparison and a broader first-round distribution among multiple contenders, allowing observers to assess how support is distributed across the leading names on the ballot.
Because the survey spans both a head-to-head scenario and a multi-candidate first round, it highlights where electoral coalitions and vote consolidation could prove decisive should no candidate reach an outright majority in the initial vote.
Readers should note the stated sample size and margin of error when interpreting these results, as standard sampling variability may affect the precision of the percentages reported.