Stock Markets July 31, 2026 02:10 AM

Unicaja Banco Lifts 2026 Profit Outlook After Strong Q2 Showing

Second-quarter results outperformed estimates on lower impairments and robust other income, prompting management to raise full-year profit guidance

By Leila Farooq
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Unicaja Banco reported second-quarter 2026 net income of 201 million euros, beating analyst forecasts by 10% and prompting the bank to raise its 2026 profit guidance. The surprise stemmed largely from lower-than-expected impairment charges and stronger other income, while core revenue and cost trends remained broadly in line with market expectations.

Unicaja Banco Lifts 2026 Profit Outlook After Strong Q2 Showing
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Key Points

  • Unicaja reported Q2 2026 net income of 201 million euros, 10% above analyst expectations.
  • Lower impairment charges and stronger other income drove the beat; fully loaded CET1 ratio stood at 15.8%.
  • Updated 2026 guidance includes low-to-mid single-digit NII growth, mid-single-digit net profit growth, and a maintained 95% payout policy.

Unicaja Banco reported net income of 201 million euros for the second quarter of 2026, topping analyst estimates of 183 million euros by 10%. Management cited lower impairment charges and stronger other income as primary contributors to the upside.

On several other fronts the bank also outperformed consensus. Pre-tax profit came in about 9% above market expectations, and pre-provision profit exceeded forecasts by roughly 3%. Total revenues were 2% ahead of estimates while operating costs were in line with analysts' projections.

Net interest income was reported in line with consensus, registering a 2% increase both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Customer spreads narrowed by 2 basis points in the quarter, with loan yields rising 1 basis point and deposit costs increasing 2 basis points. The bank attributed the rise in deposit costs to the recent European Central Bank rate increase.

Net fee income fell short of expectations by about 2%. Within fees, revenues from asset management and insurance showed healthy performance, whereas banking fees continued to lag. For the first half of 2026, total fees were up 2.6% year-over-year.

On the expense side, total costs grew 4.8% year-over-year in the first half and matched consensus estimates, consistent with the bank's full-year cost guidance.

Impairment charges were materially below street expectations. Total impairment charges for the quarter totaled 41 million euros versus a consensus forecast of 55 million euros. The cost of risk for the period stood at 18 basis points. Other provisions recorded in the second quarter amounted to 22 million euros.

Balance-sheet metrics showed loan growth ahead of expectations and deposits slightly behind. Customer loans exceeded consensus by 3%, rising 5% quarter-over-quarter and 4% year-over-year. Corporate lending expanded 7% year-over-year while retail lending increased 3%. Customer deposits, including repos, were 1% below expectations, declined 1% from the prior quarter but were 4% higher year-over-year.

Capital and profitability metrics were solid. The fully loaded CET1 ratio reached 15.8%, beating consensus by 10 basis points. Adjusted return on tangible equity for the quarter was 12%, while reported RoTE stood at 10%.


The bank revised its 2026 guidance following the quarterly results. Net interest income is now expected to grow in the low-to-mid single-digit range, an update from prior guidance that targeted levels above 2025. Fee growth remains targeted at low single digits year-over-year, and cost growth is still expected in the mid-single-digit percentage range on a year-over-year basis.

Unicaja improved its cost of risk guidance to a range of 20-25 basis points, compared with previous guidance of below 30 basis points. Net profit is now expected to grow in the mid-single-digit range, a change from the earlier outlook of being higher than 2025 levels. The bank confirmed a 95% payout policy.

Overall, the quarter combined stronger-than-expected non-interest dynamics and lower impairments with steady core net interest trends, prompting management to lift profit expectations for 2026 while retaining conservative guidance on fees and costs.

Risks

  • Rising deposit costs tied to recent European Central Bank rate increases could compress margins - this impacts banks and deposit-dependent lenders.
  • Persistent weakness in banking fees, despite strength in asset management and insurance fees, could limit revenue upside - this affects retail banking and fee-reliant business lines.
  • Customer deposits came in slightly below expectations and fell quarter-over-quarter, which could pressure funding dynamics if the trend continues - relevant to liquidity and wholesale funding markets.

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