Futures linked to Canada’s main, resource-tilted stock index edged upward on Thursday, supported partially by a rise in gold prices even as investors remained guarded because of ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
By 04:50 ET (08:50 GMT) the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract was up 19 points, a gain of 0.9% from its previous level. The move followed a session in which the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell to a three-week low as traders responded to renewed fighting across the Middle East together with a decision by the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates unchanged.
Lingering in the background of Canadian market action were remarks from President Donald Trump indicating that the United States might not extend a free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, even as negotiations with those countries continue. Such comments contributed to a cautious tone among investors assessing cross-border trade risks.
Among individual Canadian company developments, Apotex Health completed a significant equity transaction, raising roughly 1.3 billion Canadian dollars in gross proceeds after registering the largest initial public offering on the TSX in five years.
U.S. futures and broader market context
Across the border, U.S. stock index futures climbed on Thursday as reports circulated that the United States and Iran had continued negotiations despite exchanging strikes, and as technology shares showed signs of a tentative rebound.
As of 05:59 ET (09:59 GMT), S&P 500 futures had risen 56 points, or 0.8%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 333 points, about 1.1%, while Dow Jones futures increased by 392 points, roughly 0.8%.
Those gains followed a weak previous session on Wall Street, when hot U.S. consumer price readings and sustained Middle East tensions weighed on investor sentiment. Large technology names were particularly hard hit in that earlier sell-off amid growing doubts over artificial intelligence spending plans and the prospect of higher interest rates.
Diplomatic developments amid continued strikes
Reports indicated that U.S. and Iranian representatives continued talks overnight on a possible peace arrangement even after an exchange of air strikes for a second day. CNN reported the continuation of negotiations despite the recent strikes. Reuters, citing Iranian sources, said Washington and Tehran were still discussing a preliminary deal that would include a mechanism to unfreeze Iranian funds, and added that efforts to reach such an agreement had picked up pace.
Following those reports, Brent crude futures — the global oil benchmark — retraced earlier gains. But uncertainty persisted over the talks, with President Donald Trump warning of further action if Iran did not immediately accept a peace plan.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the U.S. had struck multiple military targets in Iran late Wednesday into early Thursday, characterizing the attacks as "self-defense" after an American helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week. Media reports, not fully confirmed, said Iran retaliated by striking several U.S. military bases and allied positions in the Gulf, with explosions reported in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Iran also stated it had blocked all ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a claim that CENTCOM denied. These exchanges follow intermittent strikes between the U.S. and Iran over the past two weeks, tied to a broader escalation in the region.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that "[W]hile the rhetoric from both sides is heated, it doesn’t appear that a full resumption of hostilities is occurring" - a characterization that reflects the uncertain but contained nature of the latest confrontations.
Meanwhile the Israeli military warned early Thursday of projectile launches from Lebanon. Recent days have seen Iran and Israel exchange strikes, the most recent exchanges occurring after Israeli operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
Gold edges higher as oil retreat eases inflation fears
Spot gold edged upward on Thursday, benefitting from a pullback in oil prices that helped to alleviate some concerns about an oil-driven spike in inflation and the prospect of a faster pace of interest rate hikes by central banks.
Market participants have voiced worry that rising crude prices could push consumer inflation higher, prompting central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to lift rates further. Because gold does not yield interest, higher policy rates can put downward pressure on its appeal, but the recent oil retreat provided some countervailing support.
Data released on Wednesday showed the hottest rate of U.S. consumer price gains in years, driven largely by a jump in gasoline pump prices. Investors were preparing to parse U.S. producer price figures due later in the day for additional clues on inflation trends.
Market pricing derived from CME’s FedWatch Tool suggested investors expected the Fed to raise borrowing costs before the end of 2026. The ECB was also widely expected to lift rates at the conclusion of a two-day meeting, as policymakers aim to rein in price growth across the 21-member euro area.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar had strengthened since the start of the conflict in late February, a move that can make bullion more costly for overseas buyers and influence gold demand dynamics.
Oracle shares slide after outsized 2027 spending outlook
Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) fell in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the cloud and enterprise software company projected capital expenditures of up to $95 billion in fiscal 2027, well above Street expectations near $68 billion. Oracle also disclosed plans to raise $40 billion in debt and equity financing in 2027, developments that overshadowed results that otherwise beat quarterly earnings forecasts.
Oracle’s aggressive spending outlook was framed as part of its effort to scale up as a major data center provider for large AI customers. However, the forecast for significantly elevated 2027 spending came amid rising doubts about the long-term durability of the AI investment theme - a concern that has contributed to a rotation out of technology shares in recent trading sessions.
Those uncertainties were amplified by a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI was planning deep cuts to its AI pricing as it faces mounting competition from rivals, including Anthropic. That report added to investor questions about revenue and margin trajectories across AI-related businesses.
Tech sector weakness, particularly among large chipmakers and other buzzy names, has dragged on broader market sentiment. In the prior trading session the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.9% - the Dow’s worst single-session percentage loss so far in 2026.
What to watch next
- U.S. producer price inflation data released later in the day for fresh inflation direction.
- Further developments in U.S.-Iran talks and any additional military exchanges that might affect oil and risk sentiment.
- Central bank signaling from the ECB’s meeting and ongoing pricing of Fed rate moves through 2026.
Investors continued to weigh geopolitical risks, central bank policy trajectories, and the evolving narrative around AI investment and tech capital spending as markets searched for clearer direction.