Raymond James on July 7 launched coverage of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), assigning a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price objective, a level that would imply roughly 440% upside from SPCX's July 8 closing price of $148.30. The call stands as the most aggressive on Wall Street and highlights the divergence between the most bullish analysts and a market still evaluating the public valuation of the aerospace firm.
Investors looking for leveraged exposure to SpaceX have access to two exchange-traded funds that mirror the stock's daily moves: the Leverage Shares 2X Long SPCX Daily ETF (NASDAQ:SPCH) and the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SPCX ETF (NASDAQ:SPCU). Both of those ETFs amplify daily performance of SPCX and were indicated higher in pre-market trading ahead of Thursday's session.
In his initiation note, reported by StreetInsider and AOL/Yahoo Finance, Brian Gesuale framed SpaceX less as a traditional aerospace manufacturer and more as a broad infrastructure platform. "Starship represents the defining industrial innovation of our generation," he wrote, likening the program's potential to transformative infrastructure projects of past eras such as railroads and internet backbones. At an $800 share price, Raymond James' math implies a market capitalization near $10 trillion - about six times the current valuation and more than three times Microsoft at its consensus price target of $240. The Reuters-compiled average target of $240 would value SpaceX at approximately $3.2 trillion.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu offered an expansive view in a separate initiation, describing SpaceX as "the apex of civilizational ambition, oftentimes expressed in steel and fire, bending the arc of history to make humans multiplanetary by building foundational infrastructure across transportation, connectivity, and AI," a passage reported by AOL/Yahoo Finance.
The enthusiasm among initiating analysts has been broad. At least 13 analysts have issued initial coverage, and all 12 analysts representing the IPO's underwriting banks carry the equivalent of a Buy rating, according to AOL/Yahoo Finance. That unanimity has prompted scrutiny in some corners, because those underwriting banks could benefit from future capital raises. Goldman Sachs has estimated potential SpaceX capital raises of up to $270 billion through 2030, a projection market observers have identified as a potential conflict of interest for banks with underwriting relationships.
Not all initiating views are uniformly optimistic. MoffettNathanson is the lone outright skeptic among analysts who initiated coverage, assigning a neutral rating and a $131 price target that implies roughly 18% downside from recent trading levels, per CNBC. CFRA has reportedly placed a sell-equivalent recommendation with a $115 Street-low target, although the detailed rationale behind that bearish assessment has not been broadly circulated.
SPCX's market debut and initial trading patterns have complicated the narrative for bulls. The company raised $85.7 billion in its June 12, 2026 IPO, the largest in history, pricing shares at $135 and opening at $150. The stock was added to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 in one of the fastest index inclusions on record under revised Nasdaq listing rules. J.P. Morgan estimated that the Nasdaq-100 inclusion would prompt about $4.3 billion in passive inflows as benchmarked funds rebalanced. Despite those dynamics and the wave of bullish analyst coverage, the stock closed July 8 at $148.30, below the IPO's opening level.
Pre-market data in the early hours of Thursday showed SPCX at about $150.30, a gain of roughly 1.35% from the noted close, suggesting the stock may retake the $150 level before regular trading began.
Market participants have pointed to a gap between expectations and observable public-company financials. "There’s nervousness about expectations being too high," Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, told Reuters. "I expect that to continue until we get some earnings out." That nervousness stems in part from SpaceX's lack of a public earnings history and the absence of a listed price-to-earnings ratio, leaving analysts to base valuations on forward-looking scenarios rather than conventional earnings multiples.
Raymond James' $800 target is tied to an optimistic view of Starship's potential to transform launch economics, the growth trajectory of Starlink's satellite broadband business, and what the firm describes as a once-in-a-century infrastructure buildout. Other analysts have been more measured. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens has described some peer valuations in the cohort as "a bit fantastical," according to Reuters, though a comprehensive written critique has not been widely published in the materials cited here.
Investors will be watching two principal catalysts that remain without firm public dates. First is SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report as a public company; that release could either support or undermine high-end forecasts such as Raymond James' $800 target. Second is the expiration of insider lock-ups for early investors and members of Elon Musk's inner circle, a date not specified in publicly available sources; the lock-up expiration will influence how much additional supply could reach the market. Until those events occur, the Raymond James $800 target will remain the boldest benchmark in a coverage landscape that is still in early stages.
Summary
Raymond James initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Street-high $800 target and a Strong Buy, implying about 440% upside from the July 8 close of $148.30. The analyst positioned SpaceX as a generational infrastructure company centered on Starship and Starlink ambitions. Most initiating analysts are bullish, particularly those from the IPO's underwriting banks, while a few firms have taken neutral or negative stances. Market participants note uncertainty because SpaceX has no public earnings history and two key catalysts - the maiden quarterly report and insider lock-up expirations - have not yet occurred.
Key Points
- Raymond James set an $800 target and Strong Buy rating for SPCX on July 7, implying roughly 440% upside from the July 8 close of $148.30.
- Two leveraged ETFs, SPCH and SPCU, provide amplified daily exposure to SPCX and were indicated higher in pre-market trading ahead of Thursday's open.
- Analyst coverage has been largely bullish with at least 13 initiations and unanimous Buy-equivalent ratings from the 12 underwriting-bank analysts, though a limited number of firms have issued neutral or sell-equivalent views.
Risks and Uncertainties
- SpaceX has no public earnings history or listed P/E ratio, which limits conventional valuation anchors and increases reliance on forward-looking assumptions - a concern for equity and infrastructure investors.
- Potential conflicts of interest exist because underwriting banks that issued Buy-equivalent ratings could benefit from future capital raises; Goldman Sachs has estimated potential SpaceX capital raises of up to $270 billion through 2030.
- Two key catalysts - the company’s first quarterly earnings report and the insider lock-up expiration date - remain unspecified publicly and will materially affect supply and valuation visibility for market participants.