Prediction markets have become a focal point for traders speculating on Anthropic's planned IPO now that the AI company has filed to go public. Since the filing earlier this week, platforms offering binary "yes" or "no" contracts have seen substantial activity, with dozens of markets created to let participants bet on discrete outcomes such as the exchange where Anthropic will list, the amount it will raise and its opening valuation.
On Polymarket alone, more than a dozen separate markets have been established where participants wager on a range of IPO-related outcomes. Rival platform Kalshi has listed markets tied to which investment bank will lead the deal and how index providers will categorize Anthropic. Combined trading across these markets has reached into the tens of millions of dollars in volume, reflecting heavy interest from prediction-market traders.
Michael Ashley Schulman, a partner at wealth management and advisory firm Cerity Partners, offered a consumer-facing analogy to describe the activity: "Prediction market interest in Anthropic’s IPO is the financial equivalent of people lining up outside the Apple Store before a new iPhone release," he said. Schulman added that the wagers may assist the market in converging toward a likely public opening price.
Anthropic's IPO filing marks a major step toward a public listing for the lab behind the Claude family of models. Reports cited in the filing process indicate the listing could value Anthropic at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, a range that has attracted specific bets on the company’s closing market capitalization.
Interest from retail traders in prediction markets follows a broader shift in the platforms' coverage. Once primarily focused on political outcomes and economic data, these services have expanded into traditional Wall Street territory, now offering markets on corporate events, stock moves and company metrics that typically influence share prices. The expansion has allowed participants to speculate on specific corporate outcomes without purchasing shares directly.
Despite increased retail engagement around major listings in recent years, IPO allocations historically have favored institutional investors, with issuers assigning only small portions of offerings to individual investors. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, emphasized that Anthropic's offering will serve as a significant test of demand for AI from both retail and institutional sides. "The Anthropic IPO is going to be a crucial litmus test about both individual and institutional investors’ appetite for AI," he said.
Volume measures on specific contracts illustrate the scale of prediction-market activity. The Polymarket contract on the timing of Anthropic's IPO had recorded $6 million in trading volume as of 9:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT) on October 28. A related Polymarket contract focused on Anthropic's closing market capitalization had drawn roughly $3 million in volume by the same timestamp.
Advocates for prediction markets argue they are increasingly integrated into investors' approaches to managing financial risk and speculation. "Prediction markets are clearly becoming an integral part of many investors’ approach to financial risk management and speculation," Sosnick said, underscoring the role these platforms now play in framing expectations around high-profile corporate events.
As Anthropic progresses through the IPO process, the blend of retail speculation via prediction markets and traditional institutional demand will remain a closely watched feature of the offering. For now, the markets provide a way for traders to express views on specific, tradable outcomes tied to the company's public debut without holding equity directly.