Options traders are pricing in a roughly 12% post-earnings swing for Samsara Inc. Class A shares (IOT) around the company's Sept. 3 earnings release, based on options data compiled by Bloomberg. The implied move reflects the market's expectations for how volatile the stock might be immediately following the report, which is scheduled after the market close.
Looking back at recent earnings events, Samsara's actual price behavior has been mixed relative to what options implied. In five of the last eight earnings reports, the stock moved by more than the options market suggested. Examples include:
- June - actual move of 18.1% versus an implied move of 13.4%.
- March - actual move of 28.9% versus an implied move of 15.7%.
- December 2025 - actual move of 21.1% versus an implied 13.5%.
- September 2025 - actual move of 18.1% versus an implied 8%.
- September 2024 - the stock rose 6.7% in that period, compared with an implied move of 14.6%.
The stock has also fallen short of implied volatility in three instances. Those occasions included sharper-than-expected declines as well as more muted moves:
- June 2025 - shares fell 3% against an implied move of 11.3%.
- March 2025 - the stock dropped 29.3% compared with an implied move of 14.8%.
- December 2024 - shares declined 2.7% versus a 7.1% implied movement.
These historical divergences underline that options-implied moves are a measure of market expectations but are neither guarantees nor precise predictors of actual price behavior. Traders and investors watching the Sept. 3 release will be assessing the company's reported results against those expectations, and the options market indicates potential for a sizable one-day shift.
Context and market implications
Because Samsara is quoted as IOT in the market data referenced, changes in the stock's price around earnings can affect sentiment in the broader IoT and enterprise technology segments. The variance between implied and actual moves also highlights the role of options pricing in signaling trader expectations for volatility ahead of key corporate events.