Morgan Stanley released its May read on North American coatings pricing, reporting that the overall coatings Producer Price Index rose 5.9% year-over-year and increased 0.9% month-over-month. The firm emphasized that the underlying PPI series is volatile and cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions from a single month of results, especially when those outcomes diverge from company disclosures or historical patterns.
In its commentary, Morgan Stanley highlighted a growing disconnect between transport original equipment manufacturer (OEM) strength and firm-level outcomes. As an example, the bank noted that in the first quarter of 2026, PPG's Industrial Coatings pricing was down 1% year-over-year while Axalta's Light Vehicle price and mix was roughly flat year-over-year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed there were no methodology changes to this PPI index over the past year. Morgan Stanley said changes in the PPI typically reflect shifts in either demand or input costs. The firm also suggested that tariff effects on imported coatings products or raw materials could play a role by shifting demand or prices toward U.S.-based alternatives.
Breaking the data down by segment, Morgan Stanley reported that overall OEM coatings PPI increased 13.7% year-over-year in May versus a 2.0% comparison period, and stood at 11.0% year-over-year on a year-to-date basis. For context in the dataset, OEM coatings PPI was 3.1% in 2025 and negative 1.9% in 2024.
Transportation OEM pricing showed a notable jump, rising 53.1% year-over-year in May against a 7.2% comparison; the two-year stack edged up to 60.3% from 57.2% in April. Other OEM pricing increased 2.5% year-over-year versus a 0.7% comparison period.
Architectural coatings PPI rose 5.1% year-over-year versus a 0.3% comparison, reaching 4.3% year-over-year on a year-to-date basis compared with 1.7% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2024. Special Purpose coatings PPI was up 2.4% year-over-year against a 1.8% comparison; that series sits at 0.6% year-over-year year-to-date, compared with 0.9% in 2025 and negative 1.1% in 2024.
The reporting included market tickers and intraday moves cited in source materials, with PPG indicated at +0.84% and AXTA at +1.76% on the snapshot provided.
The data release underlines a mixed and changeable pricing environment across coatings categories. Morgan Stanley's guidance to treat single-month PPI movements with caution is a reminder of the index's sensitivity to demand swings, input cost shifts, and possible trade-related impacts on import flows.