Morgan Stanley published a chartbook compiling regional and sector-specific statistics for the European property market. The release aggregates recent performance, valuation metrics and macro correlations to provide a consolidated view of where listed property stands relative to broader European equities.
On a year-to-date basis the European property sector has gained 2% in local terms, while the MSCI Europe index has risen 10% when measured in euros. When total shareholder return is used - incorporating dividends - the gap persists: the property sector’s TSR stands at 6% compared with a 12% TSR for MSCI Europe.
Within the United Kingdom, listed property names have outperformed domestic equities year to date in local currency terms. UK property stocks are up 10%, versus a 9% rise for the broader UK equity market.
Performance has varied by subsector. Logistics and retail are identified as the best-performing subsectors so far this year, whereas residential assets and self storage have lagged peers.
Valuation measures feature prominently in the chartbook. The sector is trading at a 29% discount to net asset value, notably wider than the historical average discount of 17%. Morgan Stanley notes that dispersion in NAV valuations has increased materially in recent months and remained above the 10-year average at the end of July. By contrast, dispersion in EPS yields has compressed to an all-time low.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley offers a point estimate for capital value growth across the stocks it covers: an average 2% capital value growth forecast for 2026 across covered UK names, compared with a 1% average forecast for Continental European covered stocks.
Beyond performance and forecasts, the chartbook assembles several valuation metrics including discount to NAV, dividend yield, EPS yield and EBITDA/EV yield. It also presents macro and market inputs - GDP growth, bond yields, capital availability, inflation and currency movements - alongside their correlations with property market outcomes.
For market structure and long-term trends, the publication contains extended series for European office markets covering rents, values and yields. It additionally tracks e-commerce penetration and its relationship to logistics rents, offering a view on how structural change in retail is influencing demand drivers for logistics real estate.
Data limitations: The chartbook compiles the metrics described above; where information is limited to what is contained in the chartbook, the report reflects those constraints rather than expanding beyond the presented figures.