Kepler Cheuvreux has moved Airbus up the list from Hold to Buy and raised its target price to €212 from €196, citing what it describes as an improving macro backdrop and a more constructive bottom-up outlook for the European aerospace manufacturer.
Shares in Airbus responded positively to the move, trading 3.4% higher in Paris by 08:27 GMT.
Analyst rationale
Kepler analyst Aymeric Poulain said the upgrade reflects a rebound across the aerospace sector, helped in part by hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a consequent easing of oil-price pressures. In his note, Poulain wrote that after several months of macro-driven hesitations he upgraded Airbus to a Buy and restored the target price to EUR212 per share.
Poulain emphasised that deliveries are expected to pick up as previously reported supply-chain and production issues are now being managed and are reflected in company guidance. That progress, he argued, supports an acceleration in output and underpins the improved outlook for the group.
Supply-chain signal from Boeing
To buttress his view on supply-chain capacity, Poulain pointed to Boeing’s stated confidence in reaching 52 units per month for its 737 next year and its readiness to lift its mid-term production target to 70. He interpreted those measures as evidence that the broader supply chain can sustain an Airbus ramp-up trajectory.
Outstanding issues and optionality
Despite the upgrade, Poulain identified the ongoing dispute with Pratt & Whitney over the GTF engine as the main unresolved - but temporary - issue in Airbus’s production equation. He noted that a resolution of that disagreement could provide additional upside for the company.
Poulain also said he currently sees no structural reason to anticipate a downward revision to Airbus’s 2026 guidance. He highlighted potential optionality for margin expansion within the commercial business as well as contributions from Defence & Space and from balance-sheet usage.
Market implication
The analyst concluded that a pending acceleration in deliveries during the second half of the year points toward a higher share price by year-end and the prospect of a return to double-digit shareholder returns on a 12-month view.
Note: This article reports the analyst action, the market reaction and the specific points raised in the analyst note, without adding new projections or external commentary.