Kepler Cheuvreux has re-rated Mowi ASA, cutting its recommendation from Buy to Hold and lowering the firms price objective to 200 Norwegian crowns from 225. The broker said the change reflects growing concern over input-cost inflation even though Mowi delivered a robust operational quarter.
Operationally, Mowi reported second-quarter operating EBIT of C231 million, beating both Keplers and consensus forecasts. The quarter benefited from higher volumes and lower operating costs, with Canada West and Scotland singled out as strong contributors. Pro-forma harvest volumes rose 7% year-on-year for the period.
Despite the quarters strength, Kepler has shifted its attention to cost guidance after a pronounced uptick in fishmeal and fish oil prices. The broker noted that Mowis feed price is forecast to remain flat only through the third quarter of 2026, and cautioned that "there is nowhere to hide from the raw material inflation Q3 onwards." That raw-material pressure underpins Keplers decision to moderate its view on the stock.
On the balance sheet, Mowis net interest-bearing debt excluding IFRS 16 was reported at C2,800 million, in line with expectations and up 48% year-on-year. The company also completed a disposal on June 30, divesting a 9 kiloton harvest-volumes operation in Canada East, and it is currently planning a full exit from Canada by 2029.
Kepler now models higher farming costs ahead, projecting an 8% uplift in 2027 and an additional 1% rise in 2028. Those cost assumptions feed into the brokers reduced top-line and profit outlooks: sales estimates were trimmed by 0.3% for 2026 and 3.8% for 2027; adjusted EBIT forecasts were cut by 8.7% and 19.3% for 2026 and 2027 respectively; and adjusted EPS was lowered by 16.5% for 2026 and 22.3% for 2027.
Kepler retained a constructive view on supply dynamics, expressing a "strong belief in moderate supply and stronger prices," but said the risk/reward calculus has become less favorable because the company will likely need higher spot market prices next year to offset the anticipated cost inflation. Under the brokers estimates, the shares would trade at price-to-earnings multiples of 18x for 2026 and 15x for 2027, both of which the broker notes are above historical averages.
In Oslo trading, Mowi shares edged down 0.8% by 07:52 GMT following the analyst action. The brokers reassessment combines the companys solid recent earnings delivery with a more cautious outlook driven by feed and fishmeal price trajectories and higher projected farming costs.
Outlook and implications
Keplers downgrade signals a shift from earnings-driven appreciation to cost-risk sensitivity for Mowi. The firms revised estimates and price target reflect the potential earnings squeeze from lower-than-expected spot prices or continued raw-material inflation. Market participants will likely watch feed-cost trends and spot salmon prices closely for signs that could validate or counter the brokers updated assumptions.