JPMorgan has revised down its 2026 North America box office forecast, lowering the projection to $9.65 billion from a prior estimate of $9.86 billion. The investment bank attributed the cut to a slower-than-expected start to the third quarter and the underperformance of several headline releases.
The firm adjusted its estimates for theater operator Cinemark Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CNK) and cinema-technology company IMAX Corp (NYSE:IMAX) ahead of their scheduled earnings reports. Those revisions reflect a combination of stronger second-quarter box office results and weaker tracking for the third quarter, prompting JPMorgan to rework its near-term outlook for exhibitors and premium-format screens.
Second-quarter North America box office revenue totaled $2.97 billion, an increase of 12% versus the same period a year earlier and above JPMorgan's internal estimate of $2.75 billion. JPMorgan noted that this was the highest quarterly box office tally since the pandemic and identified strong performances from the films Obsession and Backrooms as primary contributors to the better-than-expected quarter.
Despite the robust second-quarter showing, the bank said its reduced full-year 2026 outlook reflects underperformance from releases in the Minions and Mandalorian franchises and a downward revision to tracking for Moana. Those negative adjustments were partly offset by improved tracking for titles The Odyssey and Spider-Man, but not sufficiently to preserve the prior $9.86 billion projection.
JPMorgan's release-count assumptions were also revised. The bank now projects 125 wide releases for 2026, up from its earlier forecast of 123 releases and one fewer than the 126 wide releases recorded in 2025. Looking beyond 2026, JPMorgan trimmed its 2027 North America box office projection to $9.85 billion, estimating that growth into 2027 will be driven roughly 2% by price increases.
In a separate adjustment, JPMorgan reduced its IMAX estimates after second-quarter box office in China fell short of expectations by about $35 million. That shortfall was a specific factor in the recalibration of IMAX-related revenue assumptions.
Impacted sectors - The revisions affect movie exhibitors, premium-format operators, and studio box-office revenue expectations. Estimates for public companies tied to theatrical performance were specifically altered in advance of earnings announcements.