Stock Markets August 18, 2026 08:48 AM

Goldman Sachs: NielsenIQ data show 1% rise in U.S. store sales over four weeks, recent two-week momentum weakens

Pet Care and Health & Beauty Care lead gains while select beverage and tobacco categories show mixed or slowing trends

By Avery Klein
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Goldman Sachs' review of NielsenIQ weekly data for the period ending August 8 finds total store sales up 1% over the latest four-week span. Growth decelerated to nearly flat in the most recent two-week window compared with the prior two weeks. Category strength was concentrated in Pet Care and Health & Beauty Care, while several beverage subcategories and tobacco showed weaker short-term trends.

Goldman Sachs: NielsenIQ data show 1% rise in U.S. store sales over four weeks, recent two-week momentum weakens
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Key Points

  • Total store sales rose 1% in the latest four-week period, but growth slowed to nearly flat in the most recent two weeks compared with the prior two weeks.
  • Pet Care and Health & Beauty Care led category gains; Household Care and Grocery showed modest growth while Baby Care was flat and General Merchandise, Alcohol, Tobacco and Dairy declined.
  • Company-level divergences: CHD led Health & Personal Care year-over-year growth; P&G and KMB also showed strength, while CL, CLX and KVUE displayed mixed outcomes.

Goldman Sachs published NielsenIQ point-of-sale data for the week ending August 8 indicating that total store sales rose 1% in the most recent four-week period. The firm notes that the pace of expansion moderated when examining the most recent two weeks, which were nearly flat compared with the prior two-week interval.

The data highlight divergent performance across consumer staples categories. Pet Care and Health & Beauty Care were the strongest categories over the four-week window. Household Care and Grocery delivered modest positive growth, while Baby Care was flat. Offsetting those gains were declines in General Merchandise, Alcohol, Tobacco, and Dairy.

Food and Health & Personal Care moved in opposite directions during the latest four-week set. Food sales registered a modest decline, whereas Health & Personal Care posted an acceleration in sales growth relative to the prior month. Nevertheless, two-year stacked sales growth slowed for both of these categories.

Within Health & Personal Care, Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) led year-over-year gains. Goldman Sachs attributes CHD's outperformance to promotional activity that translated into mid-to-high single-digit volume growth in the latest four-week period. Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) also registered strength: P&G's expansion reflected a mix of volume and price contributions, while Kimberly-Clark's uptick was driven primarily by volume.

Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL) recorded low single-digit sales growth, though Goldman Sachs notes that trends decelerated versus the prior month amid lower price growth. Clorox (NYSE:CLX) showed sequential improvement in sales as higher price investments combined with robust volume growth. Another name in the group, NYSE:KVUE, lagged peers with under 1% sales growth, but this nonetheless represented an improvement from declines observed in the previous month.

Turning to beverages, dollar sales growth softened on a two-week versus four-week basis across most non-alcoholic subcategories. Declines in short-term momentum were observed for coconut water, energy drinks, sparkling water, sports drinks, ready-to-drink coffee and ready-to-drink tea. By contrast, dollar sales growth for carbonated soft drinks and bottled water held steady across the two- and four-week comparisons.

At a company level within non-alcoholic beverages, PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) and The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE:COCO) posted improved dollar sales growth on a four-week basis relative to the prior month. Dollar sales growth slowed for other non-alcoholic beverage companies over the same period, including Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH) and Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST).

In alcoholic beverages, Goldman Sachs reports stability in dollar sales growth for wine, beer and flavored malt beverages, and for ciders and seltzers when comparing two-week to four-week trends. Spirits displayed modest deceleration. On a company basis, dollar sales growth remained stable for Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) and Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) on a four-week basis versus last month, while dollar sales growth slowed for Brown-Forman (NYSE:BFb).

For tobacco and nicotine, the overall cigarette category saw dollar sales declines accelerate modestly in the most recent two-week span versus the prior four-week period. Dollar sales trends were stable for Altria (NYSE:MO) and British American Tobacco (NYSE:BTI) on a four-week basis versus last month, while Imperial Brands (NYSE:IMB) and Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) experienced modest slowing in dollar sales growth.


These NielsenIQ snapshots capture short-term changes in retail sales momentum across consumer staples. The pattern of mixed category performance and slowing near-term momentum underscores uneven demand within staples segments during the latest reporting window.

Risks

  • Short-term slowing in two-week sales momentum could signal vulnerability in categories that had previously shown strength - this impacts consumer staples and retail exposure.
  • Modest deceleration in spirits and weakening dollar sales growth across many non-alcoholic beverage subcategories suggest demand softness in beverage producers and distributors.
  • Accelerating declines in overall cigarette dollar sales during the most recent two-week span introduce downside risk for tobacco manufacturers and related retail channels.

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