Glencore, the global commodity trader and miner, has set a plan in motion to list on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in October through a secondary listing. Broker and investor briefings held this month drew substantial attendance and suggest Australian fund managers are weighing the firm’s copper credentials heavily when assessing the offering.
Participants at the briefings - organised by brokers including JPMorgan, Barrenjoey and UBS - focused on Glencore’s business profile, its index implications and the mechanics of a CHESS Depositary Interest (CDI) listing. Representatives of JPMorgan and UBS declined to comment on the sessions, while Barrenjoey did not respond to a request for comment.
Glencore’s management has set an ambitious target for index inclusion. CEO Gary Nagle has said he expects the company, which is valued at around $88 billion, could qualify for Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index within 12 months of listing if its CDIs achieve a market value of A$1.5 billion. To be eligible for the larger S&P/ASX 100 index, Glencore’s ASX-traded equity would need to reach a market value of at least A$5.5 billion.
Market watchers and analysts who attended the briefings suggested the company might reach the ASX 100 threshold much sooner than a year if liquidity and market capitalization materialise rapidly. Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at Barrenjoey in Sydney, said that once investors understand who Glencore is and the nature of the offering, the company could reach the ASX 100 as early as March or April next year, provided it secures the necessary trading volumes and valuation. He noted that entry into the ASX 100 would make the stock a must-hold for funds that benchmark to that index.
Australian institutional investors have become more familiar with secondary listings via CHESS Depositary Interests. ASX data cited at the briefings shows there are now 37 metals and mining companies’ CDIs on the exchange, up from 22 in early 2020. Trading activity in these listings has also picked up sharply, implying that Glencore may be able to find the liquidity it needs after listing. A small number of global miners drive a large share of that liquidity; Newmont, Alcoa and Capstone Copper were highlighted, with Newmont alone showing turnover of around A$9.0 billion.
Investors are particularly drawn to Glencore’s copper exposure. Approximately 30% of the company’s profit is derived from copper today, and analysts at the briefings estimated that copper could represent as much as 50% of Glencore’s earnings by 2030 if the company brings its development projects online on schedule. That growth narrative - tied to demand for electrification and artificial intelligence-related applications - has made Glencore an attractive potential addition for portfolios seeking metal exposure.
"Another investment opportunity would be welcome," said Andy Forster, senior investment officer at Argo Investments, reflecting an appetite among some Australian investors for a large-cap mining name with meaningful copper exposure.
Coal remains a complicating factor. Glencore is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, and thermal coal accounts for roughly 15% of the company’s underlying industrial earnings. That concentration could prompt reluctance from investors who screen out fossil-fuel producers or maintain strict environmental, social and governance (ESG) exclusions.
Some fund managers appear to be de-emphasising environmental concerns in favour of other investment drivers, but the landscape remains mixed. The Responsible Investment Association Australasia (RIAA) provided data showing that Australian funds under management which exclude coal investments increased by 14% to A$37.9 billion last year. RIAA Co-CEO Estelle Parker observed that the trend toward exclusions could strengthen as wealth transfers to younger generations progress - citing a Productivity Commission estimate that around A$3.5 trillion of assets will move from baby boomers by 2050 - and noting that younger investors often ask more questions about the holdings underlying their investments and commonly screen out fossil fuels.
That dynamic suggests some investor segments in Australia may continue to avoid a company with significant thermal coal earnings, while others may prioritise exposure to copper and the broader commodity cycle. How these competing preferences balance out will influence both the immediate market performance of Glencore’s CDIs and its trajectory toward index inclusion.
Exchange rate disclosure provided at the briefings showed $1 equals 1.4090 Australian dollars.
Market context and next steps
Glencore’s October ASX secondary listing is a strategic effort to access one of the world’s larger pools of institutional capital. The company has framed the move as a way to support its copper growth ambitions and potentially facilitate larger-scale mergers and acquisitions should it choose to pursue them. The speed with which Glencore attracts trading liquidity and market valuation on the ASX will determine how quickly it becomes embedded in domestic benchmark indices and how broadly it is held by Australian funds that use those benchmarks.