Crypto exchanges are offering traders a way to place speculative bets on SpaceX’s eventual public valuation well in advance of any IPO by listing so-called pre-IPO perpetual futures. These contracts - modelled on the perpetual futures commonly used in crypto markets - do not represent ownership of stock and have no direct legal link to underlying shares. Instead, their pricing references SpaceX’s last publicly disclosed private valuation.
The product has drawn sizable flows. Data compiled by the trading-data provider Talos, covering eight exchanges, shows about $3.2 billion in trading volume and roughly $390 million in open interest on SpaceX pre-IPO perps between May 17 and Wednesday. Separately, Binance said its SpaceX pre-IPO perpetuals recorded $2.1 billion in trading activity over an 18-day window, without disclosing a regional breakdown.
Perpetual futures - or 'perps' - are a familiar construct in cryptocurrency markets. They carry no fixed expiry, can be rolled over indefinitely, and commonly permit traders to use borrowed funds to magnify positions. While crypto perps historically have been associated with very high leverage - sometimes up to 100-to-1 - analysts say the newly introduced pre-IPO variants generally cap leverage much lower, typically between 3x and 5x.
Exchanges monetize these contracts primarily through market-making activities and by charging trading fees. The rise of pre-IPO perps tied to SpaceX has crystallised a broader tension between crypto platforms and traditional stock exchanges as major private companies prepare to list publicly. The emergence of these contracts, and regulatory developments in the U.S. that cleared perps for cryptocurrencies, were enough to influence market behaviour: shares of New York Stock Exchange parent Intercontinental Exchange fell earlier in the week as investors factored in a perceived long-term competitive threat to incumbent bourses. The downward pressure on ICE shares continued into the next trading session as some market participants feared the model could be extended to equities.
Philippe Noeltner, a lawyer at A&O Shearman, described the volume of activity in SpaceX pre-IPO perps as 'mind-boggling', adding that the product is 'obviously aimed at a crypto-native, crypto-friendly audience that are looking to obtain high-leverage bets on specific market movements.'
Supporters of the contracts argue they can aid price discovery and broaden investor access to potential gains from U.S. equity markets. Critics counter that the contracts are risky: they often suffer from low liquidity, can be highly volatile and - unlike tokenised stocks - are not pegged to any legally enforceable underlying asset. Exchanges differ in how they realign contract prices when a related stock eventually lists, but the common feature is that the instruments are not directly backed by shares while operating in the pre-IPO phase.
Market-data provider Kaiko reported that SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual prices have declined from levels above $200 to about $160 within less than a month. By comparison, SpaceX shares are expected to price at $135 apiece when the company lists. Kaiko analyst Laurens Fraussen warned that 'this pre-IPO perpetual isn’t really anchored towards anything other than speculation' and framed the phenomenon, alongside prediction markets, as symptomatic of a move towards what he called the 'hyper-gambler-isation of everything.'
The World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), an industry body representing stock exchanges, cautioned that buyers of such contracts might mistakenly assume the products carry the same procedural and regulatory safeguards as listed securities. In an email, a WFE spokesperson said it can be difficult to judge how robust price formation will be for these products and that the organisation would raise the issue in its dialogue with regulators.
Observers also note that the origin of the trading activity is opaque. It is not possible, based on public data, to determine whether the flows come predominantly from retail participants, proprietary trading desks, or institutional investors. Coinbase and Binance declined to disclose how many users had transacted in SpaceX pre-IPO perps, and Talos said public data does not allow clear identification of market participants.
'It’s also very difficult to know who’s active in these markets, whether it’s your retail trader punting £10 or a proprietary trading desk of a hedge fund taking a position,' said Noeltner. 'It’s better not to assume that these are only retail traders.'
Alex Edman, a London Business School professor who studies investor psychology, noted that both the SpaceX IPO narrative and interest in crypto are strong draws for market participants, but he urged buyers to be clear on what they are actually purchasing. Edman said that while some investors may research the prospects of space exploration or learn about crypto use cases, neither necessarily conveys the true economic worth of these derivative contracts.
As SpaceX prepares for what has been framed as a record-sized IPO - a fundraising target cited at $75 billion to support long-term ambitions including space-based infrastructure - the mechanics and market structure of pre-IPO perp trading remain unsettled. Exchanges offering these products include Binance, Coinbase and Hyperliquid. The contracts are generally not available to U.S. investors.
Price formation and participant composition remain key uncertainties. The WFE and other market observers have flagged potential investor misunderstandings and the difficulty of ensuring comparable protections to those that apply to listed securities. Regulators, exchanges and market-thread participants will be watching how these instruments evolve as high-profile IPOs approach and as trading volumes continue to rise or fall.