Citigroup has reduced its one-year price forecasts for bitcoin and ether, citing deteriorating investor interest, persistently negative ETF flows and a lack of forward movement on U.S. crypto legislation. In a note issued Tuesday, the brokerage revised its 12-month target for bitcoin to $82,000, down from $112,000, and cut its ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175.
At the time the brokerage published its note, bitcoin was trading at $58,864.27 - its weakest level since September 2024 and roughly half the value of its all-time high of $126,223.18 reached in October of last year. Ether was quoted at $1,585.63, a level not seen since April 2025.
Citi highlighted that crypto markets have faced headwinds throughout the year, including higher market volatility, investor enthusiasm focused on large expected initial public offerings and sustained ETF outflows that track the assets. Both cryptocurrencies are trading below their long-term moving-day averages, the bank said, a technical sign it interpreted as reflecting bearish sentiment.
In laying out downside risks, Citi's bear-case scenario assumes recessionary macroeconomic conditions and continued ETF outflows, under which bitcoin would be valued at $53,000 and ether at $1,094 over the next year.
The firm said the forecast revisions were driven in part by a reduction in its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption - lowered to zero from a prior $10 billion forecast. "ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently," Citi wrote, adding that bitcoin ETF flows were down about $3.3 billion so far this year.
Citi also signaled that broader investor adoption of the cryptocurrencies is likely to remain on hold until a new catalyst emerges. The note pointed to slow progress on U.S. crypto legislation and noted concerns about potential bitcoin selling by companies holding digital-asset treasuries as additional factors weighing on sentiment. The weakness in crypto prices has coincided with a rotation of capital into AI-related assets, the bank observed.
Context and market signals
The bank's lowered targets and revised ETF inflow assumptions reflect its view that one of the key institutional demand channels for crypto has weakened. Citigroup's update incorporates both technical measures - with both tokens below long-term moving averages - and flow data, notably the reported $3.3 billion net decline in bitcoin ETF flows year-to-date.
While the firm preserved a structured outlook that includes a downside scenario tied to macro recession and ongoing outflows, its base-case revision centers on neutralized ETF inflows and subdued investor demand until policy or market catalysts change the current trajectory.