China's imports of semiconductor production equipment rose 9% year-on-year in July, according to a Barclays analysis, marking a recovery from weaker readings earlier in 2026. The July increase follows a 4% expansion in June and comes after a 1% decline for overall imports across the second quarter, and a 16% year-on-year drop in the first quarter.
Barclays highlighted logic chip production as the proximate driver of the recent uptick. The bank's breakdown of equipment categories shows a mix of improvements and persistent weakness across tool types:
- Lithography tool imports rose 7% year-on-year in July, up from 3% growth in June.
- Chemical vapor deposition (CVD) equipment imports increased 15% year-on-year in July, reversing a 16% decline recorded in June.
- Etching equipment imports fell 6% year-on-year in July, an improvement compared with a 24% decline in June.
- Assembly and back-end equipment imports expanded 35% year-on-year in July, following 43% growth in June.
- Wire bonder imports jumped 61% year-on-year in July.
Regional dynamics appear important to the recovery. Barclays noted that the rebound in imports is largely driven by activity in the Shanghai region, aligning with commentary from ASML that China demand is being supported by logic spending while memory-related investment remains subdued.
On the outlook for memory-related investment, Barclays expects China memory spending to accelerate in the second half of the year as capacity expansions pick up pace. The bank projects wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) growth for China of 10% in 2026 and 15% in 2027. When factoring in export controls and China localization, Barclays estimates the addressable market for its coverage could grow 3% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.
The July data thus represents a partial recovery after steep declines earlier in the year, with strength concentrated in logic-focused tools and in the Shanghai area. However, some tool categories, notably etch, remain below year-earlier levels despite smaller declines compared with June.
Data points from Barclays cited in this report:
- July imports up 9% year-on-year, vs. 4% growth in June.
- First-quarter imports down 16% year-on-year; second-quarter imports down 1% overall.
- Category moves in July: lithography +7%, CVD +15%, etch -6%, assembly/back-end +35%, wire bonders +61%.
- Barclays WFE growth projection for China: 10% in 2026, 15% in 2027.
- Addressable market growth for Barclays coverage after export controls and localization: 3% in 2026, 7% in 2027.