Stock Markets June 11, 2026 09:26 AM

BofA Sticks With Ares, Citing Valuation Gap and Clear Growth Paths

Analyst reconfirms Buy; data center strategy and asset-based finance highlighted as near-term growth drivers

By Leila Farooq
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ARES

BofA Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating on Ares Management Corporation after a group investor dinner with the company’s CFO, pointing to an attractive valuation discount and visible growth channels. The bank highlighted shadow assets under management, European waterfall structures and expansion of real assets and asset-based finance as core supports for long-term earnings growth near 20%.

BofA Sticks With Ares, Citing Valuation Gap and Clear Growth Paths
ARES
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Key Points

  • BofA Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating on Ares Management after a meeting with CFO Jarrod Phillips, citing a 1.5 standard deviation valuation discount versus the five-year average and visible growth drivers.
  • The bank expects continued organic growth with larger contributions from real assets and asset-based finance, supported by strong institutional demand for non-investment grade direct lending, notably from Middle East sovereign wealth funds.
  • Ares’s dedicated data center strategy features a 70-person investment team focused on urban-adjacent development, long-term leases with investment-grade tenants, and a first dedicated data center drawdown fund expected to have a large first close this summer.

BofA Securities has maintained a positive stance on Ares Management Corporation, reaffirming its Buy recommendation after a group investor dinner with Ares CFO Jarrod Phillips on Tuesday evening. The firm told investors that Ares is trading at a valuation roughly 1.5 standard deviations below its five-year average, a discount BofA views as compelling given the manager’s growth visibility.

Valuation and growth visibility

BofA pointed to several structural elements that underpin its long-term earnings per share outlook of around 20%. The bank emphasized the importance of shadow assets under management and European waterfall structures as mechanisms that support visibility into future fee generation and earnings growth.

Business mix and demand drivers

The firm anticipates that Ares’s organic growth will remain robust, with increasing contributions coming from its real assets business and the asset-based finance franchise. Institutional appetite for non-investment grade direct lending remains strong, BofA said, driven in part by demand from Middle East sovereign wealth funds that are looking to diversify investments internationally at an accelerated pace.

Key takeaways from the meeting

  • BofA outlined six primary conclusions from its meeting with management. One projection is that credit quality metrics should plateau in the second half of 2026, at which point growth rates of non-accruals and net losses are expected to stabilize.
  • Redemption requests tied to private business development companies improved materially in the third quarter of 2026 on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
  • Ares’s approach to data centers is described as differentiated: a 70-person investment team is concentrated on developing projects in urban-adjacent locations, seeking high-teens internal rates of return with downside cases around 12%.
  • The firm typically secures leases in excess of 15 years with investment-grade rated tenants and uses make-whole provisions to protect returns. Ares anticipates a large first close for its inaugural dedicated data center drawdown fund this summer.

Deployment environment and deal flow

Overall deployment opportunities were characterized as broadly attractive across Ares’s businesses, with one notable exception: U.S. direct lending. That segment has been affected by muted private equity activity following geopolitical developments tied to the Iran conflict and volatility in the software-as-a-service sector during the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, elevated redemptions in retail vehicles have had the effect of improving returns on larger deals.

Strategic optionality

BofA also flagged the possibility that Ares could look to acquire a large private equity manager as a way to strengthen its capital markets capabilities and distribution. The bank specified that an acquisition target would be a manager with flagship funds larger than $15 billion in assets under management.

Recent financials and fund closes

In its recent reporting, Ares posted first-quarter 2026 results that fell short of analyst expectations, delivering earnings per share of $1.24 on revenue of $1.27 billion. Separately, Ares announced the final close of its oversubscribed Pathfinder Fund III, which secured $8.5 billion for the asset-based finance strategy.

BofA’s reaffirmation reflects a view that Ares combines an appealing valuation entry point with clear avenues for fee and earnings expansion, even as certain pockets of deployment and macro-linked activity remain uneven.

Risks

  • Credit quality metrics are projected to plateau in the second half of 2026, meaning non-accruals and net losses could remain elevated until they stabilize - this affects the credit and direct lending sectors.
  • U.S. direct lending deployments are muted due to reduced private equity activity following the Iran conflict and SaaS sector turmoil in Q1 2026, which could limit growth in that business line.
  • Elevated redemptions in retail vehicles create variability in capital availability and have shifted returns dynamics, impacting retail-investor-focused products and large institutional deal economics.

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