BofA Securities moved Doximity to an Underperform rating from Buy and lowered its price objective to $20 from $38, pointing to limited visibility into the company AI-driven growth strategy and rising execution risks tied to its push into artificial intelligence.
The brokerage said the shift reflects concern that the company increased investment spending on AI initiatives could weigh on profit margins for years. Shares of the company dropped about 5% in premarket trading on Monday following the announcement.
In its note, BofA acknowledged Doximity remains the market leader in physician-focused pharmaceutical advertising and is making strategic investments, citing products such as the DoxGPT AI assistant. Despite that, the bank highlighted intensifying competition from AI-focused rivals - it specifically named OpenAI and OpenEvidence - as a factor that could make it harder for Doximity to grow spend from existing pharmaceutical customers and could exert additional pressure on profitability.
BofA expects pharmaceutical companies to spread AI-related budgets across multiple competing platforms rather than concentrating spend with a single provider. That anticipated customer behavior led the brokerage to cut its revenue projections for fiscal 2027 and 2028 and to warn that future earnings estimates remain exposed to downside risk.
On margins, the bank said it anticipates a multi-year cycle of AI investment as rivals continue to spend aggressively. BofA raised concerns that reliance on third-party frontier AI models could put Doximity at a disadvantage on computing costs. It also warned that pricing pressure in the market could further erode what BofA described as Doximity industry-leading margins.
Reflecting those dynamics, BofA reduced its fiscal 2028 and 2029 EBITDA margin estimates to 46.5% and 46.0%, respectively, down from levels above 51% in its prior forecasts. The bank now values Doximity at roughly 9 times projected 2026 EV/EBITDA, applying a discount relative to leading healthcare IT peers. BofA argued that the stock merits a lower multiple given the heightened risk of sustained margin compression despite Doximity maintaining a strong competitive position.
The brokerage also trimmed near-term revenue forecasts and reiterated that ongoing investment and competitive dynamics leave estimates and the company's earnings outlook at risk. Investors reacted to the downgrade with a pullback in premarket trading, reflecting concern about the longer-term profit impact of an extended AI investment cycle.
Context and outlook: BofA's note combines recognition of Doximity's current leadership in its niche with a cautious view on how AI competition and extended capital deployment could restrain revenue growth and compress margins over multiple years.