Bernstein has reiterated "outperform" ratings on four major brewing companies even as U.S. beer volumes remain deeply negative, contending that a gas-price-driven pullback in overall category demand is obscuring differentiated results at the brand and company level.
The broker leans on Nielsen data covering the 12 weeks to August 8, 2026, which show total industry beer volumes down 6% year-over-year. Bernstein highlights a strong statistical relationship between beer volume movements and gasoline prices, noting a 48% R-squared correlation between beer volume growth and U.S. gas price growth as a key factor dragging the sector.
Against that backdrop, Bernstein identifies four brewers whose portfolio composition or relative execution has produced outperformance versus the category - AB InBev, Constellation Brands, Diageo and Heineken - and provides a company-by-company read on recent volume and share trends.
AB InBev (ABI)
AB InBev's 12-week volumes fell 5.2% year-over-year, but the brewer nevertheless outpaced the broader market and gained 30 basis points of share during the period. Bernstein points to strength at Michelob Ultra, which rose 2.7% on a 12-week basis, and to the relaunch of Busch Light Apple, up 15.5% on a 12-week basis and 65.3% on a two-week basis, as contributors to the company's relative performance.
ABI's three-month trailing volumes are now ahead of the overall market - a notable improvement relative to its pre-Bud-Light-controversy trend of lagging the market by low-single-digit percentages. Bernstein also flags a change in brand mix: Michelob Ultra now represents roughly 24% of ABI's volumes, surpassing Bud Light at approximately 20%.
On pricing and mix, ABI has delivered near 1.5% price-mix growth over the last two years, which Bernstein says is running slightly ahead of the market.
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Constellation posted a 2.4% decline in 12-week volumes, yet it significantly outperformed the category and gained 70 basis points of share. Over the past 12 weeks the company outperformed the market by roughly 360 basis points, according to Bernstein.
Within Constellation's portfolio, Modelo Especial - which represents 48% of the company's volumes - fell 4.7%, and Corona Extra decreased 6.9%. By contrast, Pacifico grew 15.4% on a 12-week basis and, together with Victoria, was one of the largest contributors to Constellation's absolute volume growth over the period. Bernstein notes Constellation as the biggest share winner among the tracked players, adding an incremental 0.7 percentage points of share year-over-year.
Diageo (DEO)
Diageo's 12-week volumes were down 1.8% year-over-year, but the company outperformed the market by around 420 basis points - the largest positive gap of any brewer covered. Brand-level contributors included Smirnoff Ice, which grew 2.1% on a 12-week basis, and Guinness, which remained positive at 1.8%.
Diageo gained 10 basis points of share in the period. Bernstein also points to Diageo's price-mix growth running between 2% and 3%, roughly 50 basis points ahead of the market. Over the past two years Diageo's beer sales growth has maintained an approximate 5 percentage-point advantage versus the market, though that outperformance decelerated to flattish in June and July 2026.
Heineken (HEIN)
Heineken recorded the weakest relative performance of the four names Bernstein rates outperform: 12-week volumes declined 9.1% year-over-year, roughly 310 basis points worse than the market. The core Heineken brand fell 11% and Dos Equis declined 11.4% on a 12-week basis, and the company lost 10 basis points of share over the period.
Bernstein notes that over the last 24 months Heineken had increasingly underperformed the market, though recent trends "appear to have inflected less worse."
Bernstein's read is that while headline U.S. beer volumes remain pressured - with a substantial portion of the variance explained by gasoline price movements - company-level brand performance, share shifts and price-mix trends create meaningful dispersion among large brewers. The broker's ratings reflect where portfolio mix and execution have translated into relative gains despite broad industry weakness.