Barclays has begun coverage of Wise Group Plc’s U.S.-listed stock at an "overweight" rating and set a $15 price target, while reaffirming the same "overweight" rating on the company’s London-listed shares and maintaining a 12-month target of 1.40.
The initiation for the U.S. share class follows Wise’s dual listing in May and the companys transition to U.S. GAAP reporting. Barclays values both the U.S. and London share classes at 24 times calendar year 2027 earnings per share. On July 3 the London-listed shares closed at 9.63.
Barclays has set expectations ahead of Wises scheduled first-quarter fiscal 2027 trading update on July 16. For the period, the broker projects net revenue of $698 million, roughly 1% above consensus. That projection rests on total payment volume growth of 28% and continued customer engagement and download momentum tracked through Apptopia data through May 2026.
On revenue mix, Barclays expects the cross-border take rate to decline by about 1 basis point in the quarter, a movement it describes as consistent with company commentary. By contrast, card and other revenue streams are forecast to expand at a faster pace than cross-border revenue, resulting in net revenue growth of roughly 22% for the quarter.
For the full fiscal year 2027, Barclays models net revenue growth of 18.3%, which it notes is the midpoint of Wises guidance range of 15% to 20%. The broker also projects an income-before-tax margin of 25.8% for fiscal 2027, placing its margin assumption at the upper end of the companys stated 20% to 25% target range.
Looking back to fiscal 2026, Wise reported net revenue growth of 19.3%, underpinned by gains in ancillary services with card revenues singled out as a strong contributor. Cross-border volume expanded 31.5% year on year, although the take rate fell 6 basis points due to the companys strategic price increases, according to the document cited by the broker.
Barclays points to several structural positives underpinning its view: the scaling of Wises Platform business, ongoing market share gains across product lines and what it characterizes as structural expansion in both the Personal and Business segments. The broker adds that continued investment in infrastructure and pricing should enhance the companys competitive moats.
The firm lays out scenarios around the upcoming July update. It views the balance of risk on that report as skewed to the upside. Its upside case assumes stronger and faster than expected traction within the Platform segment, together with ongoing market share gains in both Personal and Business channels. The downside case centers on the risk that heightened competition could blunt market share gains and lead to softer earnings momentum.
Barclays analysts also observed that London-listed shares were effectively flat in the second quarter despite what the broker describes as strong earnings performance, and they attribute the share price weakness to newsflow related to anti-money-laundering concerns.
On an earnings-per-share basis, Barclays forecasts adjusted EPS of 43.5 pence for fiscal year 2027, rising to 49.0 pence in fiscal year 2028.
Note: This analysis is based solely on Barclays published modelling and the data outlined above ahead of Wises scheduled trading update; it does not incorporate additional outside information or subsequent events.