Bank of America has resumed coverage of Shopify, assigning the company a Buy rating and establishing a $150 price objective. The bank's target equates to a 22 times 2027 estimated enterprise value to gross profit multiple, a premium versus the software peer group average of 18.1x. Analyst Tal Liani said the premium is supported by Shopify's forecasted revenue trajectory, with the bank modeling 28.3% revenue growth in 2026 and 24% in 2027 - both above peer averages.
Shopify shares rose 2.4% in U.S. premarket trading following the announcement.
Agentic commerce and the key debate
The central debate highlighted by the bank centers on whether artificial intelligence will undermine Shopify's position within the commerce stack by pushing discovery and transactions toward AI-native interfaces. Concerns about potential "platform bypass" have weighed on Shopify's stock, contributing to a 25% year-to-date decline in the share price that analysts described as creating "an attractive entry point."
BofA's analysts argue that as discovery shifts to agentic interfaces, economic value will move to the transaction and infrastructure layers - areas where Shopify is already deeply embedded. They point specifically to Shopify's checkout, payments and product-catalog infrastructure as becoming increasingly central to AI-native transactions.
The bank cited an industry estimate that agentic commerce could account for roughly 20% of global e-commerce transactions by 2030.
Early signs of AI-driven engagement
Shopify's internal metrics for the first quarter of 2026 show meaningful increases in AI-related activity: AI-driven traffic to Shopify merchants rose eightfold year-over-year, while orders originating from AI-powered searches increased roughly 13-fold. Engagement with Shopify's Sidekick AI assistant also expanded significantly, with weekly active users up 385% year-over-year over the same period.
Beyond AI signals, the bank highlighted international and enterprise growth vectors. International gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 45% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, while Shop Pay volume outside the U.S. rose by more than 70%. On the enterprise side, Shopify Plus reported monthly recurring revenue (MRR) growth of 20% year-over-year, outpacing overall MRR growth of 16.5%.
Margin and cash flow outlook
BofA's financial model anticipates operating margin expansion from 17.1% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2028. Free cash flow margin is projected to rise from 17.4% to 20.3% over the same period. The bank noted, however, that gross margins are expected to decline modestly due to the payments-heavy nature of Shopify's business.
Implications for markets and sectors
The analysis touches multiple parts of the economy: e-commerce platforms and online retail, payments infrastructure, enterprise software and AI-related services. The bank's thesis implies that firms providing transaction and infrastructure capabilities could see relative value accrual if commerce increasingly routes through AI-native interfaces.