Stock Markets June 22, 2026 01:48 AM

Asian equities climb on AI-led rally as regional currencies falter amid peace deal uncertainty

Taiwan and South Korea drive gains in MSCI EM Asia while currencies slip as U.S.-Iran talks keep investors cautious

By Avery Klein
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Most emerging Asian stock markets rose on Monday, led by strong advances in Taiwan and South Korea driven by AI- and semiconductor-linked names, pushing the MSCI EM Asia gauge to a record high. At the same time, several regional currencies weakened amid a stronger U.S. dollar and uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran roadmap toward a final deal. Market participants pointed to continued AI-driven demand for chipmakers as offsetting geopolitical and rate-related concerns.

Asian equities climb on AI-led rally as regional currencies falter amid peace deal uncertainty
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Key Points

  • MSCI EM Asia rose more than 1.5% to a record high, driven mainly by AI-related stocks in Taiwan and South Korea that comprise about 60% of the index.
  • Taiwan’s benchmark jumped over 3% to a record 47,871.190 points, marking a potential sixth straight session of gains; South Korea’s KOSPI gained more than 2% and was near its recent record.
  • Regional currencies weakened against a stronger U.S. dollar amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations and other geopolitical developments, with notable moves in the rupiah, rupee, won and peso.

Most emerging Asian equity markets moved higher on Monday, with Taiwan and South Korea posting the largest gains as technology and artificial intelligence-linked stocks led the advance. The MSCI EM Asia index rose by more than 1.5% to reach a record high, a performance largely attributable to AI-focused names in South Korea and Taiwan, which account for roughly 60% of the gauge.

Taiwan and South Korea power regional rally

Taiwan’s benchmark climbed over 3% to a record 47,871.190 points, extending a run that put the market on track for a sixth straight session of gains. South Korea’s main index, the KOSPI, also advanced more than 2%, trading near the record high it set on Friday. Observers highlighted the outsized contribution of semiconductor and AI-related equities to the region’s strength.

"Today’s equity trading shows that AI remains the strongest counterweight to geopolitics and higher rates," said Glenn Yin, director of research at brokerage ACCM. "Korea and Taiwan are being treated as direct beneficiaries of the semiconductor and AI capex cycle, while Japan is getting an extra boost through large tech and AI-linked names."

The two markets have been central to the global AI investment theme, with investors placing growing emphasis on AI-related upside even as geopolitical concerns surrounding the Iran conflict and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.


Geopolitical developments and currencies

Currency markets in Asia moved in the opposite direction, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar and a degree of uncertainty surrounding progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Mediators said the U.S. and Iran agreed to a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days, but the talks remained clouded by fresh developments, including Tehran’s assertion that it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. President Donald Trump repeating threats to resume attacks on Iran.

That dynamic kept the MSCI EM currencies gauge under pressure, which fell 0.3% for a third straight session. Specific currency moves included the Indonesian rupiah weakening to 17,818 per dollar and the Indian rupee breaking a six-session winning streak by slipping to 94.405 per dollar. The South Korean won declined 0.5% to 1,538.8 per dollar, near a two-week low, while the Philippine peso dropped to its weakest level since June 12, marking a fifth consecutive session of depreciation.

Market watchers eye MSCI decision on Indonesia

Investors are also focused on an upcoming decision from MSCI regarding Indonesia’s classification in its emerging markets framework. The index provider is set to announce its ruling in the early Asian hours on Wednesday. Market participants told analysts the outcome could significantly influence capital flows: a downgrade would likely exacerbate outflows, reinforce risk aversion and increase downside pressure on both the country’s equities and currency, according to industry commentary cited in market coverage.


Company- and policy-level highlights

  • SK Hynix surpassed Samsung Electronics to become South Korea’s most valuable company, a development noted among the day’s market highlights.
  • Japan’s finance minister reiterated readiness to intervene in currency markets, saying authorities stand ready to act on the yen at any time.
  • China maintained its lending benchmark Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged in June for the 13th consecutive month.

Those snapshots accompanied the broader market moves captured in Asia index and currency indicators around 0411 GMT, which showed mixed daily and year-to-date performance across major markets.


Implications for sectors

The equity gains centered on technology and semiconductor sectors, reflecting concentrated investor demand for firms tied to AI infrastructure and chip supply chains. Currency weakness principally impacted emerging market-sensitive sectors and domestic-focused industries in Indonesia, India, the Philippines and South Korea.

What to watch next

  • MSC I’s decision on Indonesia’s market classification, due early Wednesday in Asia, which could influence capital flows into and out of the country.
  • Further developments in U.S.-Iran talks and any additional moves or statements affecting the Strait of Hormuz, which have been weighing on investor confidence in regional currencies.

Risks

  • Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East - developments in U.S.-Iran talks and actions around the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on investor sentiment and keep pressure on regional currencies and risk assets.
  • Potential MSCI reclassification of Indonesia - a downgrade could exacerbate capital outflows and deepen downside pressure on Indonesia’s equities and currency.
  • Concentrated market exposure to AI and semiconductors - heavy index weightings in AI-linked names, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea, mean that sector-specific shocks or shifts in AI capex expectations could materially affect regional equity performance.

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