Britain's residential real estate sector experienced a slight moderation in its downturn during June, according to data released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) on Thursday. While the contraction in market activity did not deepen, the overall sentiment among professionals remains fragile and highly susceptible to macroeconomic volatility.
Tarrant Parsons, head of market and analysis at RICS, emphasized that the lingering uncertainty surrounding inflation trends and the cost of borrowing continues to exert significant downward pressure on market confidence. Although Parsons noted that the recent decline in oil prices represents a positive development for consumers and businesses, the fundamental uncertainty regarding future monetary policy remains a dominant factor. The Bank of England's recent decision to hold interest rates steady has not yet translated into renewed enthusiasm among participants in the housing market.
Key indicators from the RICS survey highlight a mixed landscape of minor improvements alongside persistent headwinds. The headline house price balance remained virtually unchanged at -33%, closely mirroring the revised reading of -34% from May. This metric, which tracks the difference between those reporting price increases versus those reporting decreases, suggests that prices have largely stabilized in their downward trajectory rather than recovering.
More optimistic signals emerged in the realm of buyer interest. The measure for new buyer enquiries improved to -29%, marking a distinct recovery from the -34% reading observed in each of the two preceding months. This represents the least negative reading since February, indicating a potential thaw in demand, albeit one that remains well below breakeven territory.
Sales expectations also showed signs of recovery in the short term. The near-term sales expectations metric climbed to -16%, a significant improvement from the March low of -34%. Over a longer 12-month horizon, sales are projected to remain broadly flat, with a modest +1% expectation. Meanwhile, price expectations for the coming year have ticked upward to +8%, up from +6%, suggesting that participants are cautiously anticipating a return to modest price growth as the market digests current economic conditions.
The rental sector presented a different dynamic. Tenant demand strengthened notably to +18%, the strongest reading since May 2025, pointing to robust demand from individuals seeking rental accommodations. Conversely, landlord instructions, which measure the number of properties offered for rent, remained negative at -18%. This imbalance is expected to drive rental prices higher, with rents projected to rise by approximately 2.5% over the next year.
Parsons concluded that the housing market is likely to remain relatively subdued in the near future. He cited the lack of clarity regarding both the political backdrop and the definitive path of interest rates as primary reasons for the ongoing hesitation among buyers and sellers. Until these macroeconomic and political variables provide greater certainty, market activity is expected to persist at current subdued levels.