Economy July 8, 2026 04:25 PM

Global economy weathers Middle East war shock but risks remain, agencies say

Top international economic and trade institutions warn of ongoing uncertainty and strain on energy and goods transit while pledging coordinated monitoring and support

By Maya Rios
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The heads of the IEA, IMF, World Bank Group and WTO said the global economy has so far shown broad resilience to the shock from the war in the Middle East but cautioned that uncertainty is high and impacts could persist. The institutions urged progress toward a resolution, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and pledged continued cooperation to monitor developments and, if necessary, provide support to strengthen countries' energy, food, trade and economic resilience. The IMF projects a slowdown in global growth to 3.0% in 2026 from 3.5% in 2025, with a rebound to 3.4% in 2027.

Global economy weathers Middle East war shock but risks remain, agencies say
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Key Points

  • Global economy has so far shown broad resilience to the Middle East war, according to leaders of IEA, IMF, World Bank Group and WTO - sectors impacted include energy markets, international trade and overall economic growth.
  • The agencies warned that uncertainty is high and that energy markets and transit of goods are under strain, calling for progress toward resolution of the conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - this affects shipping and energy supply chains.
  • IMF forecasts global growth will decline to 3.0% in 2026 from 3.5% in 2025 because of the war, with a rebound to 3.4% in 2027; institutions pledged to monitor developments and stand ready to provide support to members to build resilience.

The heads of four major international institutions - the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank Group and the World Trade Organization (WTO) - issued a joint statement noting that the global economy has generally held up in the face of the war in the Middle East. While describing overall resilience, the leaders underlined that the conflict continues to raise significant concerns about growth prospects and price stability.

In the joint release, the leaders said uncertainty remains elevated and warned that the effects of the war could linger. They specifically identified strains in energy markets and in the transit of goods as ongoing pressure points for the global economy. The statement also called for progress toward resolving the conflict and for reopening the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint the institutions said is central to addressing those strains.

The institutions pledged to maintain close cooperation and to keep monitoring developments in energy, trade and the broader global economy. They said they will work with their members to strengthen preparedness and to be ready to take further action if conditions warrant. Among the forms of support they outlined, the leaders said assistance could include helping countries build greater resilience in energy, food, trade and economic systems.

The IMF provided a specific projection tied to the impact of the war: global growth is expected to slow to 3.0% in 2026 from 3.5% in 2025, before edging back up to 3.4% in 2027. That forecast gives a numerical sense of the agencies' concerns about near-term momentum while also indicating a modest recovery thereafter.

Taken together, the statement emphasizes vigilance and coordinated action. The leaders' message is that, despite the current robustness of the global economy, policymakers and markets should remain attentive to the evolution of the conflict, energy market dynamics and the flow of trade, all of which bear directly on growth and price stability.


Report focus - The commentary highlights the intersection of energy market strains, disruptions to maritime transit routes and the broader implications for economic growth and price stability. Institutions signalled readiness to support members in strengthening resilience across energy, food, trade and economic areas.

Risks

  • Lingering uncertainty from the war could continue to weigh on growth and price stability - this risk touches macroeconomic stability and markets sensitive to inflation and output.
  • Ongoing strains in energy markets may disrupt supply and pricing dynamics, affecting energy companies, utilities and commodity-sensitive sectors.
  • Disruptions to transit of goods, including through the Strait of Hormuz, pose risks to global trade flows and supply chains, with consequences for shipping, logistics and trade-exposed industries.

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