U.S. government bond yields moved upward on Thursday as fresh producer inflation figures and a sharp rise in oil prices heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase at next week's policy meeting.
The 10-year Treasury note yield rose 8.48 basis points to 4.922%, reaching its strongest level since November 2023. The 30-year bond yield climbed 6.51 basis points to 5.3511% after touching 5.3543%, a peak not seen since June 2007. Shorter-dated paper also firmed - the 2-year Treasury yield hit its highest point in more than two years.
Data for August showed the U.S. producer price index (PPI) increased in line with monthly expectations, with energy costs a key driver of the gain. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI advanced 5.4% through August, slightly above the 5.3% consensus forecast.
Energy prices at the wholesale level jumped 4.2% in August after two prior monthly declines. Wholesale food prices rose a more modest 0.1% in August, following a 0.9% drop in July.
Market participants reacted to the inflation data by upping the probability of a September rate rise. According to LSEG's interest rate probabilities data, traders priced in roughly a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15-16 meeting, an increase from around 62% earlier.
At the same time, oil pushed higher on Thursday, rallying about 4% after military sources said Iran-aligned Houthi militants seized control of Yemen's port city of Mocha. That development raised fresh concerns about global energy supplies and contributed to the upward pressure on inflation-sensitive market indicators.
The port seizure occurred hours after President Donald Trump said he expected the Iran war to end after November's midterm elections.
The combined effect of a stronger-than-expected PPI reading and a supply-driven spike in crude prices added to market expectations that the Fed could follow through with further tightening. The moves were apparent across the yield curve, with both long- and short-term yields advancing on the same session.
Investors will be watching incoming data and central bank communications closely ahead of the Fed's September decision, as well as developments in the Middle East that could affect energy markets and inflation readings.