S&P Global Ratings altered its long-term outlook for Bangladesh from stable to negative today while leaving unchanged the country's sovereign credit ratings at 'B+' for the long term and 'B' for the short term.
The ratings agency said the outlook revision reflects the risk that Bangladesh's trend economic growth and external balance sheet could weaken further if a range of adverse developments materialize. S&P listed several such pressures, including the war in the Middle East, imbalances in the domestic financial sector and vulnerabilities in energy markets - factors it judges capable of slowing the country's export and broader economic recovery over the next 12-18 months.
In its assessment, S&P set clear downgrade scenarios. The agency said it could lower the sovereign ratings if Bangladesh's long-term trend growth rate declines to levels comparable with peers at similar average income. Separately, a sustained widening of narrow net external debt beyond 100% of current account receipts would also open the door to a downgrade.
S&P's commentary reiterates that Bangladesh's economy has experienced a marked deceleration over the past three years. The agency now expects annual growth to average roughly 4.5% across the coming three-year window. It flagged three domestic vulnerabilities weighing on that outlook: weaknesses in the banking system, uncertainty in energy markets, and fragility in the readymade garments sector.
The agency estimates Bangladesh's per capita income at approximately $2,750 in the fiscal year ending June 2026. It also noted a deterioration in medium-term per capita output growth: the 10-year weighted-average real per capita GDP growth rate has declined to about 3.3%, down from a 10-year average of 5.8% recorded in 2022.
Export performance in the garments sector — which remains the dominant merchandise export industry — has softened. S&P reported that readymade garment exports fell by 2.6% year on year in the first eleven months of fiscal 2026, and that the sector accounts for more than 85% of merchandise exports.
External trade tensions have also increased following recent U.S. trade measures. On July 24, the U.S. introduced new tariffs on Bangladesh, applying a 10% tariff rate to most goods exports. From January to March 2026, 18% of Bangladesh's exports were destined for the U.S., and roughly 86% of those shipments were readymade garments, underscoring the sector's exposure to changes in U.S. market access.
Political developments have unfolded alongside these economic challenges. Bangladesh's February 2026 legislative elections delivered a strong mandate for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party-led government. The administration has announced an agenda that includes measures to attract greater foreign direct investment, lift the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10% over the medium term, contain inflation and prioritize infrastructure investment.
On external buffers, S&P noted that foreign exchange reserves increased by about $6.2 billion in fiscal 2026, reaching $32.9 billion. Those reserves now cover around 4.5 months of current account payments, compared with roughly 3.3 months at the end of fiscal 2024.
The ratings agency judged the current account position to be moving toward a small deficit of around 0.1% of GDP in the fiscal year to June 2026. It expects the current account deficit to widen modestly to between 1.7% and 2.2% of GDP over the next three years as import demand normalizes.
On the policy front, Bangladesh ended its prior Extended Funding Facility arrangement with the International Monetary Fund at the request of the new government earlier in the year. In July 2026, an IMF team visited Dhaka at the government's request to discuss a potential new IMF-supported economic reform program.
S&P's fiscal projections point to a slight rise in the budget deficit over the coming three years, reaching about 4.7% of GDP. Net general government debt is projected to climb to roughly 43% of GDP by fiscal 2029, while the public interest burden stands at about 30% of revenues. Revenue mobilization remains low at between 8% and 9% of GDP.
Inflationary pressures are notable: headline inflation was 9.2% year on year in June 2026, compared with a 12-month average of 8.7%.
Monetary policy has been unchanged for an extended period. Bangladesh Bank's policy rate remains at 10%. The central bank moved toward a more flexible exchange rate framework in May 2025.
Banking sector fragilities feature prominently in S&P's analysis. The agency highlighted significant capital needs driven by weak aggregate asset quality. State-owned commercial banks, while representing under 30% of total banking sector assets, have an aggregate nonperforming loans ratio of about 40%.
Implications
S&P's outlook shift underscores the intertwined nature of Bangladesh's external position, export concentration in readymade garments, fiscal metrics and banking-sector health. The ratings agency's thresholds for downgrade emphasize vulnerability to persistent external debt pressures and a sustained slowdown in per capita growth.