MOSCOW, July 16 - New figures published on the government budget portal show federal spending for 2026 is projected at 45.11 trillion roubles, up from the 44.07 trillion roubles assumed in the budget law, implying the fiscal gap could surpass official plans by more than 1 trillion roubles.
Revenues in the portal’s update remain unchanged at 40.28 trillion roubles. Taken together, the numbers imply a 2026 federal budget deficit of 4.83 trillion roubles, compared with the 3.79 trillion roubles - or 1.6% of gross domestic product - envisaged under the current budget.
The portal that released the projection aggregates information from the finance ministry and the federal treasury but did not supply an explanation for the higher spending estimate. The update comes against a backdrop of rising military expenditure related to the war with Ukraine.
Those fiscal projections intersect with monetary policy considerations. The Bank of Russia is weighing whether to resume cuts to its key interest rate or to hold it steady at its upcoming policy meeting. The central bank has repeatedly warned that a larger budget deficit poses an inflationary risk.
Fiscal developments this year have already widened the gap. Finance ministry data show Russia’s budget deficit was 5.73 trillion roubles, or 2.5% of GDP, in the first half of the year - about 1.7 times larger than in the same period a year earlier. In 2025, the overall budget shortfall overshot the official target nearly fivefold, reaching 5.7 trillion roubles, or 2.6% of GDP - the highest level since the pandemic year 2020.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has acknowledged the deficit will rise "somewhat" relative to the official target but has insisted that this will not translate into a substantial increase in domestic borrowing. Nevertheless, the portal’s update shows the budget gap remains larger than previously planned through the following two years, and the finance ministry has delayed meeting the requirement under Russia’s fiscal rule to reach a zero primary budget deficit until 2029.
The portal’s figures should be read alongside market indicators and currency rates. The rouble-dollar exchange reference in the update places the conversion at $1 = 77.8000 roubles.
Policy makers will need to balance the financing implications of the larger projected deficit against the Bank of Russia’s inflation concerns and its imminent rate decision. How authorities address the higher planned spending - and whether revenues or borrowing assumptions change in response - will determine whether the projection in the portal remains an outturn or is revised back toward the official budget baseline.