Henryk Wnorowski, a member of the National Bank of Poland’s monetary policy committee, said on Friday that it is too early to conclude whether interest rates should be reduced in September.
Wnorowski made the comment in an interview with Biznes 24 television, responding to recent remarks from the central bank’s governor, Adam Glapinski, who on Thursday said he could put forward a proposal to lower rates by 25 basis points after the summer. Glapinski also noted that other members of the Monetary Policy Council might be more cautious about further easing.
Characterising current public discussion of a possible September cut as largely theoretical, Wnorowski emphasised the conditional nature of the governor’s statement. He pointed to the number of assumptions embedded in the suggestion, using the governor’s own language about contingencies: "if, if, if."
"Today’s discussion about such a motion is purely academic. Of course, we can speculate, but even yesterday’s statement by the governor contained many reservations and assumptions: if, if, if," Wnorowski said.
Wnorowski warned that the conditions underpinning talk of a cut in September may not materialise, and that new uncertainties could arise before then. "By September, these few 'ifs' may not come true; others may emerge. I believe this is a premature signal. As of today, I see a huge problem with supporting such a motion," he said in the interview.
He also clarified the scale of any potential easing this year, saying that if there were room to reduce rates in 2024, the central bank would probably be able to deliver no more than a single cut.
Separately, the central bank held its main interest rate at 3.75% on Wednesday, marking the fourth month in a row without change.
Clear summary
Poland’s monetary policy debate is currently cautious: Governor Adam Glapinski signalled he could propose a 25 basis point cut after the summer, but Monetary Policy Council member Henryk Wnorowski described discussion of a September reduction as premature and said he sees a major obstacle to supporting such a motion. Wnorowski added that, if easing is possible this year, it would likely be limited to one cut. The central bank has left its main rate at 3.75% for four straight months.
Key points
- Wnorowski called talk of a September rate cut premature and highlighted numerous conditional elements in recent statements.
- Governor Glapinski said he could propose a 25 basis point cut after the summer, but acknowledged that other council members might take a more cautious stance.
- The central bank kept its main rate at 3.75% on Wednesday for the fourth consecutive month.
Risks and uncertainties
- Uncertainty over the conditions referenced by the governor - described as multiple "ifs" - means a September decision could be derailed by unmet assumptions.
- Differing views within the Monetary Policy Council could limit the scope or timing of any easing, with Wnorowski indicating support for at most one cut this year if room exists.
- New, unspecified developments between now and September could alter the council’s assessment and weaken support for a motion to cut rates.