Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,188 total articles
Two Goldman Sachs client notes reviewed on Monday show hedge funds significantly increased long equity positions last week on expectations of a ceasefire in Iran, shifting away from shorts for the first time in eight weeks. The moves preceded a volatile session after a U.S. threat to impose a blockade nL6N40V09S on Iranian shipping. Systematic stra…
UBS has revised down its projection for UK GDP growth in 2026 to 0.6% from 1.1%, citing a marked rise in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict that is pushing inflation higher and weighing on both household disposable income and business profitability. While headline inflation is expected to ebb in April, UBS projects a renewed rise toward year…
New yuan lending in China climbed to 2.99 trillion yuan in March, up from 900 billion yuan in February, but below analysts' expectations. Measures of broad money and total social financing remain supportive of expansion, keeping the central bank on a cautious footing with no immediate move to ease policy.
The week ahead is set to be dominated by a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that begins at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday for vessels entering or departing Iranian ports, a move that has pushed oil back above $100 a barrel. Investors will parse U.S. producer-price data for March, the first full month that included the conflict in Iran, while result…
An appeals court has allowed construction of a new White House ballroom to proceed until at least April 17, extending a temporary pause on a lower-court injunction that had ordered work stopped. The project, valued at $400 million, would replace the demolished East Wing; a preservation group has sued, arguing the razing exceeded presidential author…
Private-sector members of Japan's Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy proposed a multi-year budget framework to provide stable funding for strategic investments tied to economic security, arguing that the current reliance on single-year budgets and frequent supplementary budgets undermines predictability and long-term planning. The recommendation…
China on April 13 urged all parties to act with calm and restraint after the United States announced plans to blockade maritime traffic to Iranian ports. Beijing reiterated support for ceasefire arrangements and diplomacy, rejected reports it planned to supply weapons to Iran, and said it stood ready to play a constructive role in easing the crisis…
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told BBC Radio 5 Live that the UK will not take part in a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while confirming Royal Navy minesweeper presence in the region focused on ensuring the waterway is fully reopened. The comments came as the U.S. announced it would begin restricting passage for vessels entering or leaving …
Money market traders have shifted toward a markedly hawkish view of European Central Bank policy, pricing a higher probability of near-term hikes and more restrictive settings lasting into 2026. The change in expectations follows a sharp rise in oil and gas prices tied to the Iran conflict and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, which traders a…
A poll of 50 economists points to a modest recovery in China’s economy in the first quarter, led by robust exports, but projects slower growth across 2026 as elevated oil prices from the Middle East crisis increase input costs and undermine overseas demand. Policymakers have limited room for large rate cuts and are weighing measured fiscal support.
U.S. equity futures moved lower and global markets wavered as the prospect of an immediate U.S. Navy blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran weighed on sentiment. Oil prices climbed back above $100 a barrel, amplifying concerns about the sustainability of a fragile two-week ceasefire. Corporate focus …
Poland’s prime minister hailed Hungary’s recent election as proof that Europe is not bound to a path of rising authoritarianism, congratulating the new Tisza leadership and pointing to a pattern of pro-European outcomes in the region. Speaking from South Korea, he emphasized historical, trade and security links between Poland and Hungary and descri…
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said economic and price developments are moving roughly in line with the BOJ's forecasts, but he warned that escalating conflict in the Middle East and sharply rising crude oil prices pose risks. Reading a speech delivered by his deputy Ryozo Himino, Ueda said higher oil costs would hurt Japan's economy and that a …
A Reuters poll indicates China’s exports likely cooled in March, with year-on-year growth forecast at 8.6% in dollar terms, slowing sharply from a 21.8% expansion in January-February. The decline tests whether strong AI-related demand for chips and servers can withstand an energy shock tied to the Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
A conflict in the Gulf has pushed oil and energy prices sharply higher, widening current account deficits and stretching the finances of countries already scarred by recent crises. Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Egypt are among lower-income economies facing renewed strain as fuel costs surge, remittances falter and foreign investor outflows accelerate. Au…
Italy’s sovereign debt has fallen out of investor favour as the Middle East conflict highlights the country’s exposure to imported energy and as political setbacks for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni raise questions about future fiscal discipline. Short-term borrowing costs spiked sharply in March and longer-term yields and spreads have moved higher,…
Oil futures climbed back above $100 at the Asian open as U.S.-Iran talks ended without progress and the United States declared a blockade of Iranian ports. The move, aimed at squeezing Tehran and the main buyers of its crude - notably China - prompted sharp moves across commodities, currencies and bonds. Hungary's forint rallied after the defeat of…
The Bank of Korea's governor nominee, Shin Hyun-song, told parliament in written remarks that authorities would respond appropriately should the won weaken excessively. He emphasized close monitoring of foreign exchange conditions, noted stable liquidity, and said inflationary pressure from the Middle East conflict will factor into future policy ch…
A drawn-out confrontation involving Iran that has disrupted hopes for a swift ceasefire is complicating the Bank of Japan’s calculus ahead of its April policy meeting. Policy officials are split between those sounding the alarm on rising inflationary pressures and those urging caution in the face of potential economic damage. Markets now face heigh…
Regional governments are pressing to resume negotiations between the United States and Iran after extended talks in Islamabad ended without an agreement. Officials say another round of diplomacy could occur within days as partners discuss extending a tentative two-week ceasefire announced late Tuesday. Key issues remain unresolved, including demand…
State-owned Radio Television Djibouti reports that President Ismael Omar Guelleh won re-election with 97.8% of the vote, securing a sixth term and prolonging his 27-year leadership. The ballot featured a lone opposition candidate after major opposition groups continued their long-running boycott. The vote comes after parliamentary changes to age li…
Preliminary results indicate Hungary’s opposition Tisza Party is poised to capture a two-thirds parliamentary majority, setting the stage to unseat Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power. With 53.45% of ballots tallied, projections show the Tisza Party winning 136 of 199 seats versus 56 for Orbán’s Fidesz. Orbán acknowledged the outcom…
The war in the Middle East, which erupted on February 28, has become the third major global economic shock after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ahead of this week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington, both institutions have trimmed growth forecasts for emerging markets and developing economies and raised inflati…
A Morgan Stanley briefing finds that governments have less fiscal room to offset the latest energy-driven price shock than they did during 2022-23. Elevated debt-to-GDP ratios and rising sovereign borrowing costs mean authorities are more likely to reallocate existing budgets or offer modest tax adjustments instead of new, deficit-funded packages. …
Saudi Arabia has brought the East-West pipeline back to its full 7 million barrels per day capacity after repairs to a damaged pumping station, restoring 700,000 bpd of flow. The move complements the kingdom's pivot to Red Sea terminals, where shipments have surged, and follows Aramco's recovery of output at the Manifa offshore field. Iran says its…
