Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,923 total articles
Morgan Stanley anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, maintaining an easing bias even as recent rises in oil prices push up headline inflation forecasts. The bank expects the Fed to show an unchanged dot plot, project one rate cut this year and one next year, and record three dissents in favor of a …
Consumer confidence in the United States softened in early March, with the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index sliding to 55.5 from 56.6 in February. The decline coincided with a spike in oil and gasoline prices following the onset of conflict in the Middle East, and households reported weaker expectations for their personal finances.
Brazil’s Finance Ministry slightly increased its inflation projection for the year after adjusting for a higher-than-expected average oil price tied to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. The update, issued ahead of next week’s central bank policy meeting, assumes the oil shock will be temporary but nonetheless shifts near-term inflation and feder…
Switzerland will continue to negotiate under its existing mandate to finalise a tariff agreement with the United States, Economy Minister Guy Parmelin said, as Washington begins trade investigations into excess industrial capacity and forced labour claims affecting 16 trading partners, including Switzerland. Bern is working to formalise a tariff de…
Goldman Sachs has reduced its near-term growth outlook for Japan, trimming real GDP forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as higher projected commodity costs weigh on the economy. The bank also lifted its 2026 core consumer price index projection, while noting that a government fuel price cap contained part of the inflationary impulse. The firm continues to …
Global markets are responding to the Middle East conflict with reactions that echo the initial market shock after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, most notably through a sharp rise in oil prices and a stronger dollar. But differences are apparent across other asset classes - from European gas and sovereign bonds to gold and equity volatility - re…
January's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose in line with forecasts, with core measures steady, even as the Commerce Department's second estimate trimmed fourth-quarter GDP growth. Markets responded with gains in U.S. stocks, modest declines in Treasury yields and a firmer dollar. Commentary from market strategists highlighted…
France and Italy have initiated discussions with Iran aimed at securing safe transit for European vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people briefed on the matter. The talks are intended to negotiate a guarantee of safe passage so energy shipments from the Gulf can resume. Shipping through the narrow passage has dropped to negligible…
Consumer spending rose 0.4% in January, matching December's gain, as the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index held steady at a 0.4% monthly increase. The combination of firmer underlying inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have lifted fuel costs is reinforcing views that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to…
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Iran’s newly selected supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is wounded and likely disfigured. President Donald Trump said he believes Khamenei is alive but “damaged.” Khamenei has not been seen publicly by Iranians since his selection and his first remarks, read on state television, vowed to keep the Stra…
On March 13, U.S. stock index futures inched higher after data showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose in January in line with monthly forecasts while annual PCE came in slightly below expectations. At the same time, a second Commerce Department estimate reported quarterly GDP growth that undershot economists' estimates. Marke…
Money flows into emerging market bond funds declined in the week to March 11, while inflows to emerging market equity funds paused after five consecutive weeks of net buying. The shift follows the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, a spike in energy prices and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, prompting investors to retreat from perceived risk ass…
Statistics Canada reported an unexpected net loss of 83,900 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 6.7%. Job losses spanned both goods-producing and services sectors, hit full-time and private sector roles hardest, and coincided with a rise in average hourly wages for permanent employees to 4.2%.
The United States rejected a draft proposal intended to guide reform of the World Trade Organization, saying the text was not sufficiently developed and contained unclear language. The U.S. objection, voiced in Geneva, means an agreement at the upcoming trade ministers meeting in Cameroon is unlikely because WTO decisions require consensus among al…
Summary: The recent jump in oil and gas prices after the outbreak of war with Iran has led some to draw parallels with the 2022 energy shock that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, argues the present episode differs in several systemically important ways - notably the potential scale of…
A French servicemember died and six others were wounded after a drone assault on a Kurdish military base in the Erbil region of Iraq. President Emmanuel Macron named the soldier and confirmed the death, while the French defense ministry said the forces at the base are part of an international operation training Iraqi units against Islamic State.
Eurozone industrial production dropped 1.5% in January, marking the weakest reading since December 2024, according to analysis from ING. The decline followed a 0.6% fall in December and was driven by contractions in Germany, Italy and Spain, with a pronounced drop in Ireland amplifying the headline result. ING warned that renewed conflict in the Mi…
The pound fell for a fourth consecutive session against the dollar after UK data showed unexpected stagnation in January and long-term inflation expectations remained elevated. Risk aversion tied to the conflict in the Middle East supported the US dollar, while markets reassessed the timing and direction of Bank of England policy in light of an ene…
A Reuters poll of economists conducted March 9-13 finds overwhelming expectation that the European Central Bank will leave its deposit rate at 2% through 2026, despite renewed inflation pressure after a sharp jump in oil prices tied to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Forecasts for headline inflation and short-term yields have moved higher, and markets…
UBS Global Wealth Management argues that Europe is more resilient to a potential energy shock stemming from recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, citing limited Middle East gas dependence, much lower spot gas prices than in 2022, and structural adjustments since the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The bank cautions, however, that severe scenarios could s…
Deutsche Bank has modelled two energy-price scenarios tied to the Middle East conflict and warned that a larger shock could push the euro zone into recession in 2026 and compel the European Central Bank to reconsider its monetary easing trajectory. The bank projects varied impacts on inflation and GDP depending on oil and gas price trajectories, an…
U.S. futures opened muted as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed crude toward $100 a barrel and raised concerns about broader supply-chain disruptions and inflation. Traders monitored strains in the private credit market, weighed incoming U.S. economic data for January and the fourth-quarter GDP revision, and priced in a slower path for F…
In the week through March 11 global equity funds recorded their largest net withdrawals since mid-December as concerns about oil supply disruptions tied to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran heightened inflation and growth worries. Safe-haven flows into money markets and short-term bonds contrasted with sales of equities, high-yield debt and gold f…
Eurostat data show industrial production across the 21 euro-area countries declined 1.5% in January from the prior month and fell 1.2% year-on-year, missing economists' expectations for growth. The decline underscores persistent stagnation in European industry, with output still beneath 2021 levels, and comes as a recent spike in oil and natural ga…
Two major shareholder proxy advisory firms have advised investors that Starbucks could be underestimating the financial and reputational risks tied to ongoing labor disputes. The firms point to strikes, a recent $38.9 million settlement in New York City, the dissolution of a board committee focused on labor relations, and continued union organizing…
