Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,188 total articles
Across advanced economies, public debt has climbed to levels not seen in decades outside the pandemic window, even as growth has held up. But escalating military budgets, renewed industrial policy, resource nationalism and the need to secure supply chains and critical technologies make a credible roll-back of deficits increasingly improbable, say g…
Citigroup plans to expand its investment banking footprint across Japan and China through selective senior hires aimed at strengthening sector coverage and boosting cross-border M&A capabilities. The move follows the bank's global restructuring and comes as Asia deal activity remains robust in key markets while some energy-sensitive emerging market…
Shipping data show about seven vessels, predominantly dry bulk carriers, passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours amid stalled diplomatic talks between Iran and the United States. The movements, including departures from Iraqi ports and one ship from Iran, are a small fraction of pre-conflict traffic. Separately, recent U.S. actions…
Two months after the conflict in Iran began, emerging and developing economies are displaying mounting economic stress. Disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, surging energy prices and renewed inflationary pressure are forcing some central banks to tighten policy, widening fiscal gaps and threatening fiscally fragile countries, according …
A BTG Pactual/Nexus survey released Monday finds President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro effectively tied in a simulated runoff for this year’s presidential election, with Lula at 46% and Flavio at 45%. In first-round scenarios Lula led with 41% while Flavio ranged between 36% and 38% depending on other entrants. The poll o…
A new BTG Pactual/Nexus poll finds President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a simulated second-round contest for this year’s presidential race, with first-round scenarios also showing a close race. The survey of 2,028 respondents conducted April 24-26 reports Lula at 46% and Flavio at 45% in a head-to-h…
Invesco's Asia Pacific head of fixed income portfolio management views the three- to seven-year segment of India's government bond curve as attractive, arguing that recent sell-offs and rate-hike concerns driven by geopolitical tensions and higher crude prices could be excessive. The firm highlights the importance of inflation pass-through, crude o…
Moody's has revised China's sovereign outlook from "negative" to "stable", citing resilient economic and fiscal fundamentals that should limit near-term downside despite domestic strains and external headwinds. The agency expects export growth to slow but says China's competitiveness and policy emphasis on high-productivity sectors will temper a sh…
Economists anticipate the Bank of Canada will keep its policy rate at 2.25% as a recent rise in crude-driven gasoline prices linked to the Iran war is judged a short-lived disturbance unlikely to alter inflation expectations permanently. Officials and analysts say any policy response would depend on whether higher prices feed into sustained consume…
Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to vote to keep the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% at their meeting this week, a session that may be Jerome Powell's final one as chair. Elevated energy prices following the Iran war, disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the recent DOJ decision to drop a probe into Powell's offic…
DeepSeek has introduced a promotional pricing plan that reduces charges for its newly launched DeepSeek-V4-Pro model by roughly 75%, lowering both input and output fees for developers until May 5, 2026. The Hangzhou-based AI lab also cut input cache-hit fees across its platform family to one-tenth of prior levels, a move the company says will benef…
Russia's regional budgets will see a 27% increase in their combined deficit to 1.9 trillion roubles in 2026, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov warned, driven mainly by lower corporate profit-tax receipts and greater social outlays tied to war-related payments. Regional debt levels have risen and many regions are relying on costly bank loans to cover …
Moody's reaffirmed China's A1 long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured ratings and shifted the outlook from negative to stable. The agency points to durable economic and fiscal strengths, export competitiveness and policy measures that should support gradual GDP deceleration, even as government debt is projected to rise sig…
China's National Development and Reform Commission has directed the cancellation of Meta's purchase of Chinese AI startup Manus, signaling Beijing's intent to prevent transfer of critical AI personnel and intellectual property to U.S. firms. The move follows a March travel ban on Manus executives during regulatory review and could complicate U.S.-C…
Citigroup has updated its forecast for European Central Bank policy to include two quarter-point increases in June and July, followed by a prolonged pause. The bank's economists cite hawkish communication from policymakers and ongoing uncertainty over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the drivers behind the change, while warning that the outlo…
A European Central Bank survey of more than 10,000 firms shows firms expect a near-term rise in inflation tied to the war in Iran, yet three- and five-year inflation expectations held steady and firms report moderating wage growth. The results suggest limited second-round inflation effects so far, a finding that may influence the ECB's deliberation…
Standard Chartered economist Dan Pan estimates U.S. tariff receipts fell to about $25 billion in both March and April after the Supreme Court curtailed use of the IEEPA for tariffs. While revenue remains well above pre-Liberation Day levels, the bank warns that temporary measures and the move toward sector- and country-specific tariffs could drive …
A Reuters poll of economists finds near-unanimous expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 and mostly unchanged through the year. While markets price in a possible hike in the fourth quarter, economists say a rate rise would only be warranted if the recent jump in energy prices produces sustained core i…
Revised fiscal projections and official budget estimates indicate that Greece will lose its long-held position as the euro zone’s most indebted country by the end of this year, with Italian public debt expected to remain higher through the middle of the decade. Greece’s debt ratio is projected to fall to around 137% of GDP this year, while Italy’s …
A Bank of England survey released on Friday shows British companies have lifted their expectations for selling prices over the next 12 months, while their outlook for sales growth weakened to its lowest point since July 2020. Other business gauges echoed stronger pricing signals, even as concerns about demand temper how aggressively firms plan to r…
The Bank of Russia cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% on Friday, a move in line with market expectations. Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned that the Iran war and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz create uncertainty that could blunt the benefits of higher commodity prices. The central bank raised its 2026 average oil price forecast to $65…
The Bank of England is set to keep Bank Rate unchanged this week as policymakers weigh how the Iran war is transmitting to domestic inflation and growth. With uncertainty around the duration and pass-through of higher energy costs, the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to reiterate readiness to act while markets continue to price in possible rate…
Global equity markets refocused on the artificial intelligence surge as hyperscaler spending expectations and strong semiconductor earnings outpaced concerns about stalled U.S.-Iran talks and a near halt of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Intel's upbeat revenue outlook triggered buying in Asian markets, pushing Japan, South Korea and Taiw…
The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to hold its short-term policy rate at 0.75% when it concludes its April 28 meeting, marking a likely third straight pause following a 25 basis-point move in December. While markets moved away from pricing an immediate additional hike after cautious messaging from senior officials, the BOJ is still expected to s…
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its key rate at 2% at its upcoming meeting after a ceasefire in the Iran conflict trimmed the immediate inflationary threat from oil markets. While the short-term outlook has improved and markets have pared back near-term rate bets, open questions remain about the durability of the peace, when oi…
