U.S. stock-index futures moved higher on Thursday as market participants digested continued unrest in the Middle East, firm crude prices and a busy calendar of economic and corporate reports. By 03:02 ET (07:02 GMT), futures tied to the main U.S. averages were trading up: the Dow futures contract had advanced roughly 213 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures were up about 18 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had ticked up near 15 points, or 0.1%.
The stronger futures followed a day in which the cash indexes retreated, pressured by another round of U.S.-Iran exchanges that fed concerns about extended disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In turn, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, raising worries that energy costs could stoke inflation and force central banks to tighten policy further. Fresh readings on producer and consumer price trends are due later in the week, adding to the data-driven backdrop.
Market participants also focused on Treasury supply dynamics. News that the U.S. Treasury intends to repurchase less in its latest government-bond operation than some analysts had hoped coincided with a rise in yields. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed to a post-2023 high of 4.84%, a notable move given that yields generally move inversely to bond prices. The jump in yields contributed to risk assets coming under pressure, with the S&P 500 registering a third consecutive session of losses.
“So even though we’re just over a week into September, it’s already living up to its reputation as one of the toughest months of the year for markets,” analysts at Deutsche Banks said in a note, reflecting the combination of higher energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty and market technicals weighing on investor sentiment.
Political and geopolitical developments
At a rally on Wednesday, President Donald Trump told supporters he expects the Iran conflict to conclude after the U.S. midterm elections in November. That assertion came amid a recent series of retaliatory air strikes between the U.S. and Iran. Although the president is not himself a candidate in those midterms, poll data have suggested the conflict has taken a toll on his standing and could influence outcomes for his Republican Party.
Voter frustration has been heightened by a rise in gasoline prices that followed the outbreak of the fighting in late February, and the president accused Tehran of attempting to affect the midterm vote - a development he warned could jeopardize Republican control of Congress and, by extension, the White House’s domestic and foreign agenda. Earlier initiatives by the president to set timelines for an end to the conflict have not held: a ceasefire deal struck in June was short-lived. Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Trump’s top advisers have cautioned him the conflict could extend through the remainder of his presidency, which is scheduled to conclude in January 2029.
Corporate focus - Oracle and Adobe
Attention on the corporate front turns to results from Oracle after Thursday’s closing bell. The cloud software and infrastructure company has publicly signaled an aggressive push into artificial intelligence infrastructure, with plans to spend heavily and to raise additional capital as it scales capacity. Oracle has announced major deals with large technology firms, including Meta Platforms and OpenAI, as it seeks to challenge established cloud peers in providing AI services.
The company previously indicated plans to assemble about $40 billion from a mix of debt and equity financing next year, which is larger than an earlier at-the-market equity program of $20 billion. On the capital expenditure front, Oracle’s internal forecast of roughly $95 billion in spending in fiscal 2027 stands well above analysts’ expectations, which LSEG data cited by Reuters put near $67.66 billion. Those large planned investments illustrate the scale of infrastructure required for AI deployments, and investors will be looking to see how Oracle frames near-term margins and longer-term returns on that spending.
Adobe is also scheduled to report after the close on Thursday. These results will be the first since the company announced the departure of CFO Dan Durn in June, following an earlier leadership change when CEO Shantanu Narayen stepped down earlier this year. These executive shifts have amplified questions about Adobe’s strategic course, in particular how it will defend share against design competitors while integrating AI across its product suite.
Still, Adobe has recently nudged up its full-year revenue and profit guidance, suggesting solid demand for its AI-enabled products. The company reported that AI-first annual recurring revenue exceeded $500 million at the end of the second quarter, a metric market participants will consider when assessing the strength of customer adoption and the monetization path for AI features.
Central banks and energy
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates at its policy meeting later Thursday. Officials are closely monitoring the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has contributed to a sharp move higher in energy prices. In Europe, natural gas prices have climbed to levels not seen since 2023, tightening the link between energy markets and inflation dynamics.
Traders have moved to fully price in a quarter-point rate increase by the ECB. Analysts at ING described the anticipated move as an “insurance hike” intended to shore up the bank’s credibility and to preempt any second-round or indirect inflationary effects stemming from the current energy shock.
Market movers and equities notes
Among individual equities, Apple shares finished lower after the company unveiled a new, high-priced foldable version of its flagship iPhone, described as a passport-shaped device with a $1,999 price tag. That product announcement was one of several company- and sector-specific items that influenced sentiment across major technology names, while broader macro forces pushed yields and energy prices higher.
Overall, the market picture is one of competing pressures: a string of near-term corporate results that could offer fresh readings on AI-driven investment and revenue opportunities, an active geopolitical front that has raised energy-related inflation risk, and central bank actions that are being closely watched for indications about policy trajectory.
Investors and analysts will be watching the upcoming inflation readings, Oracle and Adobe quarterly reports, and the ECB’s policy decision for clearer signals on how these forces may combine to influence market direction in the coming weeks.