Top global brokerages expect the S&P 500 to continue advancing in 2026, even as a protracted conflict in the Middle East unsettles energy supplies and pressures inflation upward. Strategists at major investment banks say that ongoing momentum in artificial intelligence and solid corporate earnings should blunt the conflict's near-term fallout for markets, though some caution that prolonged elevated oil prices may increase the likelihood of a recession.
Below are the S&P 500 index targets for 2026 reported by a range of prominent brokerages:
- BofA Global Research - 7,100
- Societe Generale - 7,300
- UBS Global Research - 7,500
- Jefferies - 7,500
- Canaccord Genuity - 7,500
- BNP Paribas - 7,500
- J.P. Morgan - 7,600
- Barclays - 7,650
- HSBC - 7,650
- Evercore ISI - 7,750
- Seaport Research Partners - 7,800
- RBC Capital Markets - 7,900
- UBS Global Wealth Management - 7,900
- Deutsche Bank - 8,000
- Goldman Sachs - 8,000
- Morgan Stanley - 8,000
- Oppenheimer Asset Management - 8,100
- Citigroup - 8,100
- Wells Fargo Investment - 7,400-7,600
Forecasters also provided projections for real GDP growth in 2026 across major regions. The following table lists each brokerage's annual real GDP growth expectations for the global economy, the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom:
| Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | EURO AREA | UK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Barclays | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| UBS Global Wealth | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| HSBC | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| J.P. Morgan | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| UBS Global Research | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
Notes: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group. Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank.
Across the forecasts, analysts point to two principal offsets to the conflict-related disruption: a continued AI-driven rotation in technology-related capital and generally strong corporate earnings that could sustain stock gains. At the same time, the same analysts caution that if oil prices remain elevated for a prolonged period, inflationary pressure could harden and elevate the risk of an economic slowdown.
The range of S&P 500 targets spans from BofA Global Research's 7,100 to Oppenheimer Asset Management and Citigroup at 8,100, with several firms clustering in the mid-to-high 7,000s. Similarly, global growth forecasts vary, with most banks projecting moderate expansions in global and U.S. GDP while assigning weaker growth to the euro area and the U.K. in 2026.
This set of broker forecasts reflects majority optimism for U.S. equity performance next year but underscores that energy-driven inflation and its macroeconomic consequences remain a central uncertainty for markets and the broader economy.