An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released today places President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round showdown for Brazil's October presidential election.
The survey results indicate Lula would receive 48.8% of the vote in a two-candidate run-off, while Flavio Bolsonaro, who is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would obtain 42.3%.
That outcome represents a change from the April poll, when both contenders were reported as tied at 48% each. The new figures therefore show a movement in voter preference between the two surveys.
In a scenario modeling the first round of voting, Lula is shown leading with 46.3% support. Flavio Bolsonaro is placed second with 36.6% of the vote. Other candidates included in the first-round breakdown are Renan Santos with 7.8%, Ronaldo Caiado with 2.9% and Romeu Zema with 2.0%.
The poll sampled 4,999 individuals between June 26 and June 30. The reported margin of error for the survey is one percentage point in either direction, reflecting the statistical uncertainty around the reported percentages.
Context and methodological notes
The survey's sample size and the stated margin of error are key parameters for interpreting the closeness of the contest indicated by the results. The change from a tied position in April to the current lead for Lula in the second-round scenario highlights variation between successive polls, while the first-round figures provide a multi-candidate view of voter intentions as of late June.
Implications
- The poll presents a snapshot of voter preferences late in June and gives both a head-to-head second-round comparison and a multi-candidate first-round distribution.
- Market participants and observers who track election-related risk often use such polls to assess near-term political uncertainty; sectors that are typically sensitive to election outcomes may monitor changes revealed by this and similar surveys.