The pace of cashing in on Argentina's 2026/27 wheat crop has been slower than typical for this point in the season, the Rosario grains exchange said Friday. Farmers have marketed just 2 million metric tons of the new harvest, a level described by the exchange as one of the weakest opening sales in the last ten years.
Fieldwork has recovered after earlier rain delays, and planting is moving quickly. Growers have sown 82% of the government-projected wheat area for 2026/27. Despite the progress in the fields, the share of the crop already contracted for sale is low relative to recent seasonal patterns.
The 2 million tons sold account for 10.5% of expected production at this stage, under the five-year average of 16.6%. Of the volume that has been committed, about 690,000 tons remain without a fixed price, leaving a sizeable portion of sales exposed to later price movements.
Forward market dynamics appear to be a key reason for the reluctance to lock in deals. The December contract, representing wheat to be delivered after harvest, has weakened noticeably - trading at about $206 per ton in early July compared with roughly $231 per ton in late April and mid-May. That decline in forward pricing has encouraged producers to defer selling rather than accept lower returns.
The exchange warned that Argentina could build larger wheat inventories if export flows do not keep pace with the country's production. It estimated 2025/26 ending stocks at about 4.5 million tons, the highest level since 2014/15, even with domestic consumption projected at 9.2 million tons and exports penciled in at a record 19 million tons.
On the price front, Argentina's wheat export price sits at approximately $227 per ton, putting it close to competing suppliers. The exchange noted that ample harvests in the Northern Hemisphere are adding downward pressure on global prices.
Growers are showing similar caution in soybean markets. Only 42% of projected soybean output has been committed so far, and just 27% of that is at a fixed price - the lowest proportion in three decades according to the exchange.
Corn sales have been more active. Weekly corn sales climbed to about 800,000 tons, the strongest weekly pace since late May, as late-planted corn begins to enter the marketplace. Corn prices remain near $180 per ton, pressured by abundant supplies in Argentina and Brazil.
Key points
- Wheat sales of 2 million tons represent 10.5% of expected production, below the five-year average of 16.6% - impacts grain markets and export logistics.
- December wheat forward prices fell to about $206/ton from roughly $231/ton, prompting sale delays - relevant to commodity traders and farm income.
- Soybean commitments are at multi-decade lows for fixed-price deals, while corn weekly sales have risen to about 800,000 tons - affecting oilseed, livestock feed, and export sectors.
Risks and uncertainties
- Rising domestic wheat stocks if export momentum slows - a risk for grain storage capacity and local market prices.
- Further declines in forward prices could keep farmers from fixing sales, prolonging market uncertainty for traders and exporters.
- Persistent abundant supplies in Argentina and Brazil may continue to pressure corn prices near $180/ton, affecting profitability across the value chain.