SINGAPORE, Sept 8 - Shipping through one of the world's most sensitive chokepoints slowed early in the week after Iran issued a warning that it would retaliate for any new U.S. attacks. Monitoring firm Kpler recorded seven commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, down from eight the day before.
Iran publicly warned that energy infrastructure across the Gulf - including U.S. oil and gas interests - was exposed and could be targeted. The statement coincided with the reduced vessel count through Hormuz, according to Kpler data released on Tuesday.
At the same time, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another key maritime route for commodity shipments, rose. Kpler's figures showed 29 commodity vessels passed through Bab el-Mandeb on Monday, up from 17 on the prior day.
Observers note a qualification to the counts: some ships may be transiting with their automatic identification system transponders switched off, which Kpler's tally does not capture. That means actual vessel movements could be higher than reported totals.
Financial market participants are responding to the heightened risk of disruption. Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude price forecasts for December 2026 and for 2027, citing expectations that shipping interruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year.
The diverging movement patterns - a slowdown in Hormuz and a pickup through Bab el-Mandeb - reflect shifting maritime flows amid elevated geopolitical tensions. The data, as reported by Kpler, provide a near-term snapshot but do not account for any unreported transits.
Sector implications
- Energy: Potential for upward pressure on crude prices led some institutions to raise price forecasts.
- Maritime logistics: Vessel routing and chokepoint utilization are shifting in response to perceived security threats.
- Trade and commodities: Interruptions at key straits can affect commodity flows and market sentiment.