A Nexus poll, conducted at the request of BTG Pactual from September 4 to 7, shows right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro with a narrow advantage over leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a simulated head-to-head runoff for next months presidential contest.
In that second-round simulation, the poll recorded 46% support for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, compared with 45% for Lula. The 1 percentage-point gap is within the polls stated margin of error of 2 percentage points, which Nexus described as producing a technical tie.
That result represents Flavio Bolsonaros strongest performance in Nexus tracking of the race, which began in late March. At the outset of that tracking, the two front-runners were tied at 46% each. An earlier Nexus release on August 31 showed Lula ahead of Bolsonaro by 46% to 45% in a similar runoff scenario.
The same BTG-commissioned survey also presented a first-round breakdown of voter preferences. In that configuration, Lula led with 39% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro on 35%. Other candidates polled lower: Augusto Cury at 9%, Ronaldo Caiado at 4% and Renan Santos at 4%, according to the survey.
Nexus surveyed a total of 2,002 people during the four-day field period. The company reported a margin of error of 2 percentage points for the poll, which is larger than the observed difference between the two leading candidates in the second-round simulation and is therefore characterized as a statistical tie.
Under Brazils electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the two candidates with the highest vote totals proceed to a second-round runoff. The first-round voting is scheduled for October 4, with a potential second-round vote set for October 25.
Methodology notes
The survey dates, sample size and margin of error were provided by Nexus: 2,002 respondents interviewed between September 4 and 7, and a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Nexus began publicly tracking the contest in late March, when the two leading candidates were tied at 46%-46%.