Commodities August 19, 2026 09:18 PM

Oil markets hold steady as Middle East tensions and Hormuz shipping uncertainty weigh

Brent ticks up modestly while U.S. WTI contracts show mixed moves amid inventory builds and regional disruptions

By Avery Klein
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Oil prices were largely unchanged in early trade as investors weighed the risk of a wider U.S.-Iran conflict and ongoing uncertainty about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose slightly, U.S. WTI contracts moved unevenly, and U.S. stockpile data showed a larger-than-expected crude build alongside shifts in refined product inventories.

Oil markets hold steady as Middle East tensions and Hormuz shipping uncertainty weigh
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Key Points

  • Brent October futures rose 25 cents to $91.87 per barrel by 0037 GMT; September WTI slipped to $85.81 while October WTI gained to $84.53.
  • Both crude benchmarks extended gains for a fourth straight session, closing at their highest since July 24; the September WTI contract was set to expire later on Thursday.
  • U.S. EIA data showed a 4.4 million-barrel rise in crude inventories for the week ended August 14, with gasoline stocks up and distillates down.

Oil prices were steady in early trading on Thursday as market participants balanced geopolitical concerns over a potential U.S.-Iran confrontation with conflicting signals on the security of maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

By 0037 GMT, Brent crude futures for October delivery were up 25 cents, or 0.3%, at $91.87 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for September delivery were down 2 cents at $85.81 a barrel, while the more actively traded WTI October contract gained 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $84.53.

Both the Brent and WTI benchmarks recorded gains for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, closing at their highest levels since July 24. Market-watchers noted that the September WTI contract was due to expire later on Thursday.

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities, said the market remained on elevated footing but lacked a fresh catalyst. "Oil prices remained elevated as the market is supported by sporadic attacks in the Middle East but lacks fresh momentum without a major escalation," he said. He added that uncertainty around diplomatic talks and regional tensions were likely to keep prices on a gradual upward trajectory: "The market is likely to maintain a gradual upward trend given uncertainty over peace talks and tensions involving the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran."

The United Arab Emirates has suspended all financial and economic transactions with Iran until further notice, a move that has drawn renewed attention to strained relations between the Gulf oil producer and Tehran.

On the diplomatic front, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks were taking place with Iran and that the Strait of Hormuz remained open. Iran, however, maintained that the waterway was still closed.

Data indicated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed on Wednesday as most shipowners steered clear of the key passage. The pullback followed a lack of clear communication about the reopening of the waterway after a blockade was imposed during the Iran war.

In energy inventory data, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported weekly movements in stockpiles that also shaped sentiment. Crude inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels in the week ended August 14, versus expectations for a 600,000-barrel draw. The EIA also said gasoline inventories rose, while distillate stockpiles declined for the same period.


Note: The market developments described reflect the data and statements available for the period referenced above.

Risks

  • Escalation of conflict involving the United States and Iran could disrupt markets further - this risk affects oil markets and energy companies.
  • Continued uncertainty over the reopening and security of the Strait of Hormuz may deter shipping and elevate freight and insurance costs - impacting global oil supply chains and shipping sectors.
  • Diplomatic breakdowns among regional actors, exemplified by the UAE suspending financial and economic transactions with Iran, could add to market volatility and influence regional trade flows - affecting commodity and banking sectors.

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