Iran has undertaken an intensive diplomatic outreach to Gulf capitals, explicitly warning that it would target the energy, power and water infrastructure of those states if the United States carries out strikes on Iranian assets. The warning, relayed by senior Iranian officials in multiple conversations, said Tehran would strike oil fields, refineries, electricity grids, water systems, transport links and other strategic facilities belonging to Washington’s closest Arab partners unless those governments press the United States to desist and seek a negotiated resolution.
The campaign of warnings followed an apparent escalation in rhetoric after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on July 28 to strike Iran’s energy network and infrastructure. According to two senior Iranian officials, two Gulf sources and a senior regional diplomat who discussed the matter on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, engaged in a string of high-level calls to convey the message.
Araqchi is reported to have spoken with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, and also with Pakistan’s army chief. The senior regional diplomat summarized the crux of the message: Tehran was prepared to retaliate against any attack on its infrastructure by striking U.S. assets and critical infrastructure across the Gulf, but at the same time argued that a diplomatic solution would be the preferred way to avoid wider escalation and destruction.
One Gulf source described the Iranian warning as "unequivocal: if America targeted Iran’s infrastructure, they would retaliate by striking Gulf energy facilities and other regional targets." That framing underscores Tehran’s effort to convert the known vulnerabilities of Gulf infrastructure into diplomatic leverage, placing regional governments before the possibility that a renewed U.S.-Iran confrontation could directly endanger the systems that underpin their economies.
The warning was communicated widely, though it was routed primarily through Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to Gulf sources. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman subsequently spoke with President Trump, urging restraint and calling for a pause to military action in favor of a return to negotiations, a ceasefire and a diplomatic settlement, the senior diplomat and Gulf sources said.
Officials said Iran’s warning was meant for every Gulf state, and that Iran’s broader objective in the outreach was to dissuade Washington’s regional allies from facilitating strikes or otherwise enabling military action against Tehran. A senior Iranian official framed the choice facing the United States starkly: either escalate in a way that could engulf the Gulf and disrupt global energy supplies, or accept a negotiated outcome that falls short of the decisive victory Washington seeks.
Gulf responses were mixed in tone. While Saudi Arabia urged diplomacy, it also emphasized its readiness to defend its territory. One Gulf source said Riyadh warned that any attack on its land would be met with a military response. A Saudi analyst close to the Royal Court, Ali Shihabi, said the kingdom’s view is that further escalation is unlikely to secure the desired outcome. Shihabi said Saudi Arabia favors a mix of proportionate military responses and sustained pressure on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz as the most practical path toward a diplomatic settlement.
Sources also noted that Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia have urged Washington to resume talks with Tehran to avert renewed conflict. The second Iranian official cited that diplomatic pressure as part of Tehran’s broader message warning that another round of U.S. strikes could "turn the region into a fireball."
Washington’s stated posture and Tehran’s demands are in tension. Iran’s clerical leadership has repeatedly called for U.S. military bases in the Gulf to be closed and for Gulf Arab states to stop sharing intelligence with Washington, which Tehran says has been employed to facilitate attacks against it. One Gulf source echoed the memory of previous disruptive strikes, noting, "They still remember Saudi Arabia’s Aramco," a reference to the September 2019 attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais facilities that temporarily cut a substantial portion of the kingdom’s crude output and highlighted the vulnerability of Gulf energy systems.
An Iranian official cited a specific list of potential targets should Tehran be struck: power grids, refineries and other elements of energy and critical infrastructure. That official warned bluntly: "The enemy continues to threaten Iranian infrastructure. If Iran suffers damage, it will inflict far greater damage in return."
U.S. public comments during the period reflect some shift in posture. On August 2, President Trump said he agreed to cancel an attack on Iran "subject to being able to rapidly make a deal."
The diplomatic outreach from Tehran, the warnings it delivered to Gulf capitals and the responses from those capitals together underscore the stressed strategic environment in the Gulf. A senior regional diplomat described one of the main barriers to a negotiated settlement as Washington’s reluctance to permit Tehran to claim any form of victory. "The United States wants something it can present as proof that it won the war," the diplomat said.
That disagreement over terms and optics appears to be a central impediment to concluding talks that Iran and some Gulf capitals say would reduce the chance of wider escalation. For now, Tehran’s message to neighboring states is clear: use whatever influence you have to persuade Washington to pull back from strikes, or face the prospect that Iran will respond by striking regional infrastructure it says supports U.S. interests.
Summary
- Iran warned Gulf states it would target energy, power, water and other strategic infrastructure across the Gulf if the United States carried out strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
- The warning was delivered in a series of diplomatic calls by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to Saudi, Turkish and Qatari counterparts and Pakistan’s army chief following U.S. threats on July 28.
- Gulf states urged diplomacy with Washington, while also emphasizing their right to defend themselves; President Trump said on August 2 he agreed to cancel an attack "subject to being able to rapidly make a deal."
Key points
- Geopolitical leverage: Iran is using the vulnerability of Gulf infrastructure as leverage in diplomatic outreach to dissuade U.S. strikes - sectors affected include oil and gas, power utilities and water services.
- Diplomatic channels: The principal diplomatic contacts were carried out by Iran’s foreign minister with Gulf and regional interlocutors; Saudi Arabia and Qatar were the primary conduits.
- Constraints on settlement: A central obstacle to a negotiated outcome is Washington’s reluctance to allow Tehran to emerge appearing to have prevailed, complicating prospects for de-escalation.
Risks and uncertainties
- Risk of regional infrastructure damage: If military strikes occur, the Iranian warning indicates the potential for retaliatory attacks on energy and power systems, creating risks for oil, power and transport markets.
- Escalation dynamics: Differing priorities among Washington, Tehran and Gulf capitals - including concerns over political optics and security guarantees - raise uncertainty about whether diplomatic avenues can prevent military confrontation.
- Defense and deterrence responses: Gulf states have signalled they will defend their territory, which introduces the risk of direct military responses that could further widen hostilities.