Commodities August 17, 2026 07:00 AM

Bank of America Strategist Recommends Gold as Defense Against Dollar Weakness

Hartnett's 'Anything But Dollar' thesis backed by the largest weekly gold inflows since January 2026 and shifting fund flows across asset classes

By Leila Farooq
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Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett reiterated gold as his preferred hedge versus a weakening dollar, citing the biggest weekly inflows to gold funds since January 2026. His note frames an 'Anything But Dollar' investment theme that also favors emerging market assets, while broader flows show substantial movement into cash, bonds and selective equity markets even as positioning remains highly bullish.

Bank of America Strategist Recommends Gold as Defense Against Dollar Weakness
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Key Points

  • Gold funds received $6.3 billion in the latest week, the largest weekly inflow since January 2026, supporting Hartnett's view that gold is the preferred hedge against a weakening dollar - impacts precious metals and fixed-income hedging strategies.
  • Large allocations into cash ($25.4 billion), bonds ($23.8 billion) and equities ($16.1 billion) indicate broad repositioning across asset classes, affecting cash management, bond markets and equity investors.
  • BofA views emerging markets positively under the "Anything But Dollar" theme and highlighted Brazil's Oct. 4 election as directionally important; political outcomes have been correlated with Latin American asset performance.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett told investors in a Monday note that gold remains his favored hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar, citing fresh fund flows into the metal as evidence of investor demand.

According to BofA's weekly flows data, gold funds drew $6.3 billion in the most recent week, the largest weekly inflow since January 2026. That gold demand came alongside substantial allocations elsewhere: $25.4 billion flowed into cash, $23.8 billion into bonds and $16.1 billion into equities during the same period.

Hartnett framed his view under an "Anything But Dollar" theme, writing that the "trade is long gold...still best hedge against dollar debasement, bond collapse, asset inflation, capitalist populism vs socialist populism politics of 2020s." The strategist portrayed gold as a primary defensive asset in a landscape where the dollar weakens and conventional markets face potential stresses.


Emerging markets and political direction

BofA said the same thematic view - a flight away from the dollar - is supportive for emerging market assets. The bank specifically flagged Brazil's Oct. 4 election as directionally significant, noting that Latin American assets have tended to benefit when more business-friendly governments win office.

The note added a political tally point: all seven presidential elections since January 2025 have been won by right-wing or right-leaning candidates, a detail BofA flagged in relation to market responses in the region.


Wider flow patterns

Beyond gold and cash, investment-grade bonds attracted $10.6 billion in inflows, the largest weekly intake in five weeks. European equities recorded a $1.2 billion inflow, the biggest since February. By contrast, China equities experienced a $14.5 billion outflow, the largest weekly withdrawal since May, and technology-focused funds saw $1.2 billion in redemptions.

BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator eased to 9.3 from 9.7, a move the bank attributed to weaker high-yield flows and outflows from technology and healthcare sectors. Despite the pullback in the indicator, BofA described positioning as "excessively bullish."


Risk note from the bank

The bank cautioned that "'greed' is always more difficult to reverse than 'fear'," and said ending a bull market requires a confluence of excess positioning, excess profit optimism and policy tightening. That caveat underscores BofA's view that prevailing bullish sentiment is an important variable in assessing the durability of current market trends.

Collectively, the flows and the strategist's note sketch a market environment where investors are reallocating across cash, fixed income, equities and gold while watching political developments and market positioning for direction.

Risks

  • Dollar debasement, bond collapse and asset inflation are cited as scenarios where gold is the preferred hedge - these risks directly affect fixed income and precious metals markets.
  • Political uncertainty around elections, specifically Brazil's Oct. 4 vote, could influence emerging market asset flows and regional equity performance.
  • Market positioning is described as "excessively bullish," and the bank warns that reversing a bull market would require excess positioning alongside excess profit optimism and policy tightening - a risk for equity and credit markets.

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