Commodities August 18, 2026 09:26 AM

Baltic Dry Index Slides to Lowest Level Since July 31 as Capesize and Panamax Rates Weaken

Overall dry bulk freight measure falls as capesize and panamax earnings decline; iron ore futures rise on hopes for Chinese stimulus

By Leila Farooq
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The Baltic Exchange's main dry bulk index fell to its lowest reading in more than two weeks as declines in capesize and panamax rates outweighed gains in the supramax segment. Average daily earnings for capesize and panamax vessels decreased, while iron ore futures climbed amid expectations of additional Chinese stimulus despite concerns about slowing industrial activity and reduced steel output.

Baltic Dry Index Slides to Lowest Level Since July 31 as Capesize and Panamax Rates Weaken
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Key Points

  • The main Baltic dry bulk index fell 63 points, or 2.2%, to 2,815 - its lowest level since July 31.
  • Capesize and panamax rates declined, with capesize losing 138 points to 4,452 (earnings down $1,250 to $36,872) and panamax dropping 51 points to 2,155 (earnings down $462 to $19,391).
  • Iron ore futures rose as weak Chinese economic data bolstered expectations of additional stimulus; gains in the supramax segment did not prevent the overall index decline.

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight benchmark retreated on Tuesday, breaking a two-session gain and hitting its lowest level since July 31 as weaker rates for larger bulk carriers weighed on the market.

The primary Baltic index, which tracks capesize, panamax and supramax vessel rates, fell 63 points, or 2.2%, to 2,815. That result represents the index's lowest reading since July 31.

The capesize sub-index led the declines, dropping 138 points, or 3%, to 4,452 - also its weakest level since July 31. Average daily earnings for capesize vessels, which normally move 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, declined by $1,250 to $36,872 per day.

Panamax rates also eased. The panamax index fell 51 points, or 2.3%, to 2,155, marking its lowest level since August 3. Average daily earnings for panamax vessels, which typically carry 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, dropped $462 to $19,391.

While the smaller supramax segment posted gains, those improvements were insufficient to offset losses in the larger vessel classes and prevent an overall slide in the main index.

In commodity markets, iron ore futures moved higher as weak Chinese economic data lifted expectations of further stimulus measures. That upward pressure on iron ore prices occurred even as traders weighed worries about slowing industrial activity and a sharp fall in steel output.


Market participants monitoring dry bulk freight costs will note the divergence between vessel segments this session - with supramax strength unable to counter declines in capesize and panamax earnings. The combination of softer freight rates for large vessels and shifting sentiment in commodity markets highlights ongoing volatility in shipping and raw-materials demand.

No additional data beyond the changes in indices and earnings noted above was reported. The available information shows a clear drop in headline freight measures and specified daily earnings figures for capesize and panamax vessels, alongside an uptick in iron ore futures tied to expectations of policy support in China.

Risks

  • Slowing industrial activity and a sharp drop in steel output could weaken demand for key dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal, affecting the shipping sector and commodity markets.
  • Freight-rate volatility across vessel segments creates uncertainty for shipping revenues and chartering decisions in the dry bulk market.
  • Reliance on expectations of additional Chinese stimulus creates uncertainty for commodity price direction and demand recovery in related markets.

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