Wolfe Research has issued its expectations ahead of quarterly reports from four consumer-oriented companies, outlining likely outcomes for revenue, EBITDA, user-related metrics and upcoming-quarter guidance.
Bumble Inc. (reports Tuesday after market close)
Wolfe anticipates a mixed set of results for Bumble. For the first quarter, revenue is expected to come in around consensus while adjusted EBITDA could modestly exceed expectations by a low single-digit percentage. At the same time, Wolfe flags downside risk to Bumble Payers, projecting a modest miss on that metric. Looking to the second quarter, the firm expects the mid-point of Bumble's revenue guide to sit below consensus, even as the EBITDA guide could show a modest raise at the high end. Since fourth-quarter results, Bumble shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point. (Intraday moves noted in the earlier reporting included BMBL +2.64%.)
Match Group Inc. (reports Tuesday after market close)
Match Group's print is also expected to be mixed, with Wolfe penciling in modest beats for both first-quarter revenue and EBITDA. Tinder net additions are expected to be broadly in line with consensus, though Wolfe highlights some downside risk to that metric. For the second quarter, the research house projects that revenue and EBITDA will at least bracket estimates and that any guide revisions could come at the high end. Match Group has outperformed the S&P 500 by 19 percentage points since its fourth-quarter release. (The earlier data snapshot showed MTCH -1.29%.)
Peloton Interactive Inc. (reports Thursday before market open)
Wolfe expects Peloton to deliver results that beat and bracket expectations. For Peloton's third fiscal quarter, the firm forecasts revenue and EBITDA to exceed consensus by a low single-digit percentage, with net additions roughly in line with expectations. For the fourth fiscal quarter, the companys revenue and EBITDA guides are anticipated to bracket consensus estimates. Since the fourth-quarter release, Peloton shares have underperformed the S&P 500 by 18 percentage points. (Reported intraday movement included PTON -4.1%.)
StubHub Holdings (reports May 13 after market close)
Wolfe expects a mixed but overall lower print for StubHub. First-quarter gross merchandise sales (GMS) and revenue are projected to be in line with estimates, while EBITDA may come in higher than expected. For the second quarter, Wolfe anticipates that GMS and revenue guidance will be moderately below consensus, although the EBITDA guide is expected to bracket estimates. Since the company's fourth-quarter results, StubHub shares have lagged the S&P 500 by 21 percentage points. (Earlier market quotes showed STUB -2.49%.)
Implications and context
Across the four previews, Wolfe Research highlights a combination of modest beats on EBITDA in certain cases, revenue guidance that at times falls short of consensus and specific user-metric risks in the dating-app names. The previews suggest that while some companies may report near-term operating outperformance, guidance for upcoming quarters will be a key focus for investors.
Stocks referenced: BMBL, MTCH, PTON, STUB.