UBS reported that AMD and ARM continued to take unit share from Intel in the server CPU market during the first quarter of 2026, while PC shipments lagged seasonal expectations for a second straight quarter.
The UBS team said total server CPU shipments increased by roughly 6% quarter-on-quarter and about 19% year-on-year, outperforming a typical seasonal pattern that would show a 7% decline. On a unit-share basis, UBS calculated that Intel lost approximately 370 basis points, finishing the quarter with 54.9% share. AMD gained 230 basis points to 27.4%, and ARM rose 140 basis points to 17.7%.
"On a Y/Y basis ARM share increased from 11.5% to 17.7%, AMD grew from 24.1% to 27.4%, while INTC share declined from 64.4% to 54.9%," UBS analysts, led by Timothy Arcuri, noted in the report.
The firm also broke down the market within x86 server CPUs. In that subset, Intel's revenue share declined 490 basis points to 53.8%, while AMD's revenue share reached 46.2%. UBS attributed the shift to a 1% quarter-on-quarter decline in Intel's server unit shipments versus a 15% increase for AMD.
UBS said it expects the current momentum to persist. After a reported 21% server CPU growth in 2025, the analysts pointed to hyperscaler capital expenditure growth of roughly 81% year-on-year and a pickup in demand from agentic AI applications as drivers that will sustain elevated CPU demand.
In their commentary on architecture-specific demand, UBS wrote that "while all CPU architectures will benefit from increasing AI demand near-term, we see strong hyperscaler adoption of ARM for head nodes and other applications in light of its power-efficient architecture, while AMD is well positioned with industry-leading core count combined with multithreading capabilities allowing to serve agentic workloads with multiple sub-agents on one device."
Regarding Intel, UBS added that the company's server roadmap "will likely become more competitive with introduction of Coral Rapids lineup," and observed that Intel could see a lift on the PC side as locally-run agentic workloads potentially support medium-term demand.
On the client side, UBS reported first-quarter PC shipments fell 13% quarter-on-quarter, which the firm said is six percentage points worse than the five-year seasonal median, translating to a 6% year-on-year decline. UBS expects global PC unit shipments to drop about 11% in 2026, citing memory price inflation as a drag on demand, and noted that AMD continues to gain client share directly at Intel's expense.
Looking further ahead, UBS provided a long-term market estimate, projecting the server CPU market to expand from roughly $30 billion in 2025 to about $170 billion by 2030 - an approximate fivefold increase. In that scenario, UBS expects ARM to capture 40% to 45% of total units by 2030, up from 15% in 2025.
KEY TAKEAWAY: Unit-share shifts in Q1 2026 show AMD and ARM continuing to erode Intel's position in servers, with server CPU volumes holding up better than seasonal norms even as PC shipments weaken. UBS's forecast sees substantial market expansion driven by hyperscaler capex and AI workloads.