Summary
Key members of the OPEC+ coalition have adopted a timetable to continue raising official oil quotas on a monthly basis through September, aiming to finish reversing output cuts enacted in 2023. Delegates told Bloomberg that while the alliance will move ahead with quota restorations in three further monthly phases, the Iran war that has blocked Persian Gulf shipments prevents the physical delivery of those barrels.
Planned restorations and the blockade
The group has formally agreed to reinstate roughly two-thirds of the 1.65 million barrels per day of supply curtailed in 2023. The remaining portion is scheduled to be brought back through three additional monthly increments, completing the plan by September. Despite the procedural approvals, major producers are being held back from actually injecting more crude into global markets due to the ongoing conflict that is constraining exports from the Persian Gulf.
Delegates described the situation as a mismatch between official quota intent and on-the-ground delivery, with the alliance continuing to record only modest increases in supply since the conflict began.
Market context and inventory pressures
Officials and delegates cited a pressing shortage in available oil, estimating that the conflict has produced a supply gap in excess of 1 billion barrels. That shortfall has drained global inventories and pushed fuel prices higher, factors that market participants say increase the prospect of economic slowdown.
The alliance had been in the process of reopening crude production that had been shut for several years to combat a prior market glut. Those restorations were underway before the outbreak of hostilities between the US-Israeli alignment and Iran on Feb. 28.
Membership changes and recent decisions
This month the United Arab Emirates withdrew from OPEC after decades of participation, a step taken following disagreements with Saudi Arabia over limits on production. The departure reduces the number of members involved in the current restoration plan by one and subtracts roughly 144,000 barrels per day from the original 1.65 million bpd cut figure.
At a May 3 video conference, the remaining seven members approved a June increase of 188,000 barrels per day. Their next scheduled policy review to consider July production is set for June 7.
Implications
While OPEC+ has laid out a clear administrative path to reverse the 2023 cuts by September, the alliance faces a persistent operational constraint: the Iran-related blockade of Persian Gulf exports continues to prevent full delivery of the intended supply increases. That constraint, combined with depleted inventories and elevated fuel prices, leaves markets and economies exposed to continued volatility.