TSMC forecast that the global semiconductor industry will surpass $1.5 trillion in value by 2030, a significant upward revision from an earlier $1 trillion outlook. The company attributed the bulk of that expansion to demand from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing workloads.
In presentation materials released ahead of a technology symposium, TSMC estimated that AI and high-performance computing will represent about 55% of the projected $1.5 trillion market. Smartphones were identified as accounting for roughly 20% and automotive applications about 10% of the market.
To align supply with that demand trajectory, TSMC said it is accelerating capacity additions in 2025 and 2026 and will initiate nine phases of wafer fab and advanced packaging construction in 2026. The company outlined specific production ramps and packaging growth targets tied to next-generation nodes and AI-focused products.
- Advanced nodes - TSMC plans to scale production of its leading-edge 2-nanometer processes and the follow-on A16 generation, targeting a compounded annual growth rate of 70% in capacity from 2026 through 2028.
- Advanced packaging - Capacity for CoWoS, TSMC's Chip on Wafer on Substrate technology, is projected to grow at better than an 80% CAGR between 2022 and 2027. CoWoS is a widely used packaging solution for AI accelerators, including chips designed by Nvidia.
- AI accelerator wafers - Demand for wafers used in AI accelerators is expected to rise roughly 11-fold from 2022 to 2026.
The presentation also mapped TSMC's global footprint and specific site developments.
Arizona - The first fab in Arizona is already in production. Tool move-in for a second Arizona fab is scheduled for the second half of 2026. Construction of a third fab is underway, and work on a fourth fab plus the site’s first advanced packaging facility is expected to begin this year. TSMC anticipates Arizona output will increase 1.8-fold year on year by 2026, and said yields there will be comparable to those in Taiwan. The company has completed the acquisition of a second large parcel of land in Arizona for future expansion.
Japan - TSMC reported that its first Japanese fab is in volume production for 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer products. In response to strong demand, plans for the second Japanese fab have been upgraded to 3-nanometer technology.
Germany - The German fabrication site is under construction and progressing as scheduled. TSMC plans to supply 28-nanometer and 22-nanometer technologies initially, followed by deployments of 16-nanometer and 12-nanometer processes.
TSMC's projections outline material shifts in semiconductor demand composition and indicate substantial capital and operational commitments across multiple regions to support rising AI and high-performance computing workloads.